Posted on 07/09/2002 6:25:15 AM PDT by Tai_Chung
The image of a US carrier burning in the China Sea will moblize this country to war faster than any one issue could.
We would utilize tactical nukes to take out large segments of their military, effectively reducing them to third world status for the next 100 years....
NeverGore
...Temporarily disable the USA so that it CANNOT interfere with the aims of the Oriental power; then present a wimpy and divided and effete USA with a fait accompli in which same O.P. has annexed all it wishes; then offer a big cease-fire and we could all go back to peace and plenty while O.P. enjoys its ill-gotten gains.
That did not work in 1941. I think that it is very possible that certain places in China would be nuked in return.
And, in doing so, completely gut her naval (surface, air, and subsurface) capabilities, and resulting in the loss of covering forces for any sort of amphibious attack.
And heaven help them when the second carrier group moves in.
On the other side of the coin, a carrier battle group can kick a** and take names just about anywhere on Earth. Additionally the US uses combined forces when it sorties.
Definately, keep your powdor dry.
I don’t fully understand why China didn’t take Taiwan while Clinton was in office – he would have weighed all options and done nothing. With that in mind, the only real deterrent China had for those 8 years was the Taiwanese Defense Force!
I remember during the Gulf War how people talked about the world's 3rd largest standing army, The United States, going head-to-head against the world's 4th largest standing army, Iraq. We were constantly reminded how the Iraqi army was battle-hardened and had sophisticated defensive structures to deter any American attack. The "mother of all battles" it was supposed to be.
A large standing army means little if they are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly led. I believe the US could defeat China without going nuclear. The US would not need to occupy China to win. We could destroy their navy and airforce, then have around-the-clock bombing of the Chinese coast.
They would have to sink two carriers at once, and then have enough resources left over to handle the other four we would send at them. This is true even if they do attack in the midst of another crisis ... say in the Mid East. My guess is that whatever they do will come after a break out in the Mid East and then probably having N. Korea go south. In the midst of both of those is when they would act militarily if they are going to do so.
But, trying to keep up with us conventionally would bankrupt them just as it did the Soviet Union, and on the naval front, they are hopelessly behind if we view it purely conventionally.
So, they will need to either come up with new technologies, or produce a naval assymetrical threat ... either of which they must then maintain and prove that they have it in numbers and with the capability to keep us at bay for a long term. None of these scenarios do that IMHO ... and they know it ... even though they have to build up such a threat at any rate to handle other regional threats.
That is not to say that they are not considering other alterntives for us and that they are not deadly serious about it. I believe they are and I discuss and present such "other" possibilities in:
Volume One of this series, "Breath of FIre", has been selling for some time on Amazon. Volume II, "Trodden Under", is going to press this week.
FRegards.
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