He believes the triggers may turn out to be [1] positive earnings numbers and [2] increased regulation. "If companies start meeting positive earnings estimates, that will make an impression on investors," Shiller said. "Government action could also have an effect. Things started turning around in the 1930s, after the creation of regulatory bodies like the Securities and Exchange Commission," he added. "Investors are pretty confident in the government's ability to enact effective regulations."Shiller believes that [1] Appearances are King. That posititivism and mere reported earnings numbers -- that estimates meet reported numbers -- are all that is needed, becuase only the "impression made" upon investors counts.
This is ridiculuous. There are many reasons we this is a ridiculous premise after a market fall and into a bear and post-bear slow "bottom of the cereal bowl" recovery. All those reasons summarize into a completely different pyshchology, set of expectations, set of reasons to invest.
Shiller can't get away from the old and gone psychology of a late bull market -- where appearances ARE King, and all that counts is mere impression.
We haven't reached bottom until hard, cash-on-the-barrelhead-reliably, pratical investement current yield is King.
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Most troubling however, is Shiller's obvious rosy-socialist-cure-all outlook. That is [2], where he claims that everyone loves government regulation, that FDR's socialist polices, FDR's social-facsist SEC, and FDR's bureaucratism of regulation after regulation pulled us out of the Greay Depression during the 30's.
Well the Great Depression began as a market blowout after a loosey-gooosey bubble of charlatans and boosters, but FDR's policies locked that depression in, rather than allowing a natural free market recovery which might have had us out by '36 if not sooner. Instead, we -- in that generation -- NEVER came out of the Great Depression. Something interposed -- that phase of the continuance of the Great War, the phase known as WW II. and only a new generation born after or just before '29 enjoyed a differet economy.
Shiller is a dimwit, except for seeing the obivious and getting credit for being wise about telling us what is clear to any ninny. He not only a dimwit but a fool, and his advice is best ignored as any fools should be, allowing that one does give respect to dimwits for what wit they may show, but slight the fool's advice completely.
No. The appearance of potential pratical investement current yield is King. Again, it comes down to human mob psychology. Unless the human race is assimilated by the Borg, you will never be able to separate that key aspect from the market.