With the Election a few scant hours away, voters may be wondering what a possible Al Gore administration will look like.
Well, mostly like Bill Clinton's third term, frankly. However, Al Gore will have plenty of changes in key positions to put his own stamp on a Gore Administration.
Clinton/Gore Transitions to Gore/Clinton
Al Gore will draw on two primary groups for his top picks: mid-level Clinton Administration members and Gore staffers and loyalists.
With that said, let's take a look at the usual suspects:
The White House Staff
The most likely pick to head the White House staff is a familiar Gore Campaign face: Bill Daley.
Daley is credited with rescuing a floundering Gore Campaign earlier this year, and his reward is likely to be the top job in the White House (other than Gore's new job, of course). Another potential is Donna Shalala, the current Secretary of HHS, and a good Gore friend. Unlike many other Clinton cabinet members, she's ducked any controversy or scandal, and has arguably done a good job at her present position.
Also likely to come over from the campaign is Alan Binder, Gore's main economic advisor during the campaign. Binder will probably get to be chairman of the National Economic Council.
And speaking of top advisors, Leon Fuerth is guaranteed of becoming Gore's National Security Advisor. Fuerth is a long-time Gore friend, and the top national security advisor to the Gore Campaign. Fuerth has long advocated "forward engagement", which consists of intervening in world events early rather than later, in order to prevent the need for military force.
Back to the Future at the State Department
Gore has expressed some positive words about Richard Holbrooke, ambassador to the United Nations and an Assistant Secretary of State earlier in the Clinton Administration.
What complicates his selection, though, is that Holbrooke has been doing everything just shy of buying billboards in Washington to campaign for the job. Still, Gore seems taken with Holbrooke, and might appreciate his strong desire for the top job at State.
If Holbrooke's campaigning ends up being self-defeating, two other possibles are Democratic Party "statesmen": George Mitchell (author of the constantly-about-to-crumble Irish peace accords and a former majority leader in the Senate) and Lee Hamilton (once thought to be a possible Mike Dukakis running mate -- and considered to be expert in foreign policy matters).
Haven't We Seen This Name Before?
The top job at Defense is likely to be offered to Sam Nunn, the retired Georgia Senator. What makes this interesting is that Sam Nunn is also a possible Secretary of Defense in a Bush Administration (albeit only as a dark horse).
If Nunn doesn't want the job under Gore, it'll likely go to Richard Danzig, Clinton's current Secretary of the Navy. Danzig's problem though, is similar to Holbrooke's -- he's been campaigning for the job rather stridently, and with somewhat less success than Holbrooke.
In addition, a dark horse possibility for the top job at Defense is long-time Gore friend Norman Dicks, Democratic congressman from Washington State.
Keeping the Till
Just as in Bush's case, the Treasury Department may go to one of Gore's top contributors. (There's something of an ironic symmetry to this: in the Clinton Administration, the job, after briefly landing in Lloyd Benten's lap, went to Richard Rubin, a top contributor to the Clinton Campaign. Perhaps the thinking is that anyone who can deliver that much money to a political campaign must know something about keeping Uncle Sam's books too. Or more likely, anyone who can deliver that much in political contributions needs to recoup his investment.)
In this case, that man is Steve Rattner, formerly the deputy CEO at investment bank Lazard Freres, and now the head guy at Quadrangle Group, a private bank and investment group.
But just as with Clinton, there's someone who might get the job first: Lawrence Sommers, the current Secretary of the Treasury is also a good Gore friend and supporter, and Gore may need to use the top job at Treasury as a political payment before he can give the job to Rattner.
The dark horse in this group is James Johnson, former head of Fannie Mae, and a top Mondale operative (which may disqualify him from just about any political job, given how badly Walter Mondale ran his 1984 campaign).
Keeping the Peace
The Department of Justice is also likely to get an overhaul during the Gore Administration, just as it will in a possible Bush Administration. But for different reasons: the Gore Campaign has privately fumed that mid-level people at the DOJ have been less-than-supportive of Gore's run, and except for some last-minute heroics by Janet Reno (for which, sadly, she will not be rewarded by the Gore Administration), the DOJ might have been their biggest problem in getting Gore elected.
So, the only holdover with a shot at the top job is Gore ally Eric Holder, who would become the first black Attorney General. Holder is a darling of liberals, and would help Gore demonstrate his commitment to enforcing civil rights laws, among others.
Gore has two other key contenders for this job, though. Long-time Gore friend and advisor Jack Quinn wants this job too. Quinn served as deputy White House counsel under Clinton and was very skilled at navigating the treacherous political waters for both Clinton and Gore -- in addition, Quinn did a great job as an "unofficial" spokesperson for the legal aspects of the Lewinsky scandals for the Clinton Administration.
Gore also has another long-time friend and advisor interested in the job: Frank Hunger, who was married to Nancy Gore, his late sister. Hunger is a top advisor to the Gore Campaign, and worked at the DOJ earlier.
The two candidates from this group who don't get the job will likely find employment elsewhere in the Gore Administration.
One other possibility is Dennis Archer, the current mayor of Detroit. Seen generally as an unlikely pick, Gore may go to Archer if he finds other posts for Quinn and Hunger, and Eric Holder turns out unsuitable for the job.
Educating Al
The Department of Education tends to be a dumping ground in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and while Gore will put more emphasis on education than usual, don't expect anything different this time here.
One of the leading contenders is Tom Carper, who is challenging Bill Roth in Delaware for his senate seat.
If Carper is Senator Carper come January, then the two other possibles are Jim Hunt, governor of North Carolina (and a Democrat), who is in his fourth term there and looking to establish a national platform for himself. Being Secretary of Education could accomplish that.
And Bruce Reed, chief Domestic Policy Advisor in the Clinton White House is a candidate for this position as well, but more of a dark horse.
HHS: Patronage Plum
Unlike in Republican Administrations (which tend to spend their terms trying to take apart the Department of Health and Human Services), Democrats tend to make HHS their key political patronage plum -- a great way to reward loyal workers with scads of high-pay/low-work jobs and special programs.
HHS under Gore should follow this mold, and the top plum here will likely go to Tom Downey, long-time Gore advisor and a close friend of Al Gore. (Downey lost a re-election bid for his House seat some years ago, and has been a Gore hanger-on since then).
If Downey isn't the pick, Gore may go with Ann Richards -- if for no other reason than picking Richards would be the ultimate slap at George W. Bush (since Richards was the Texas Governor that George W. Bush beat, and Richards also gave the famous "Poor George" speech at the 1988 Democratic Convention that excoriated George H. Bush).
Or if Gore is feeling less vindictive, he'll go with David Kessler, the former Clinton FDA chairman who is quite well-respected and a bit of a policy wonk. Two other less political candidates include Nancy-Ann Min DeParle, the current head of the Health Care Financing Administration (which runs Medicare) and David Satcher, Clinton's Surgeon General.
Laboring for a Job
The Department of Labor also tends to be a key patronage plum, and this time around, there's little doubt it will go to the occasionally controversial Donna Brazile.
Brazile has been a top Gore advisor and campaign worker, dating back to the pre-purge days of 1999, and has been very instrumental in getting black support for Gore.
Brazile does have a penchant for outrageous and occasionally controversial statements -- she's the black female equivalent of James Watt. Still, Gore will reward her hard work with the top job at Labor.
Down on the Farm
The Agriculture Department will likely continue on its present course of pouring federal money into ailing farms while trying very hard to not look like it's actually doling out handouts.
Gore has a couple of choices here, which include Jill Long Thompson, a current Ag official in the Clinton Administration.
But the two more likely choices are more political. Charles Stenholm, a Texas congressman is likely to get redistricted out of office in 2002, and will be shopping around for a job before then. Being Secretary of Agriculture might just be his cup of tea.
And Gore may need to give the moderates in the Democratic Leadership Council a nod, and one way of doing that is to give Gary Condit the job. While not necessarily a top DLC guy himself, Condit is a top Blue Dog Democrat (a group of southern conservative Democrats in Congress), and might be able to help Gore in 2004 to crack a solid GOP south.
The Political Environment at the EPA
The top job at EPA will be a star job in the Gore Administration -- if for no other reason that Gore has a monumentally large need to prove to Nader voters that he can be trusted with environmental issues.
The most likely candidate for this position is Kathleen McGinty. McGinty is the top environmental advisor to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and is also chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. She is very well respected among more liberal environmentalists and would likely satisfy most Nader voters.
But Gore may go for star power for such a position, and the leading candidate for this would then become Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the eldest child of Democratic icon Robert Kennedy. Townsend is currently the Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, and has been desperately seeking a national stage for her career. It would be hard to think of a better one.
A dark horse for this position, ironically enough, turns out to be Townsend's boss: Maryland Governor Parris Glendening. He's an advocate of Federal intervention in urban planning to prevent urban sprawl, and a Gore respects his views and ideas on planning and environmental issues.
Energy: No Star Power Here
Despite concerns over energy policy and oil shortages, Gore would put most of the emphasis on his Administration's energy policy directly in the White House staff, and possibly at the EPA. So the Department of Energy in the Gore Administration is not really the place to be for up-and-coming politicians.
That said, the frontrunner is retiring Nevada Senator Richard Bryan, who is a big consumer rights advocate and has blocked plans to place nuclear waste in his state.
Other possibilities include Tom Grumbly, a strong Gore loyalist who was on Gore's senate staff and who worked in the Clinton Administration earlier, heading up a nuclear waste cleanup program, and T.J. Glauthier, a current Deputy Secretary in the Clinton Energy Department.
The Equal Employment Act for Democrats
Gore won't be shaking up many of the Federal departments in his administration. Most of the middle-level hierarchy will remain intact, and with the exception of a few Gore loyalists and newcomers, the real changes will occur in the White House staff itself.
Other possible candidates for the various remaining cabinet officials include Terry McAuliffe, a key DNC fundraiser, and Alexis Herman, the first black woman to head the Department of Labor (under Clinton) and Norman Mineta, the first Asian-American to hold a top cabinet post (also under Clinton). Peter Knight, another DNC operative and former Gore Chief of Staff will likely also find employment in a Gore Administration.
Still, Democrats can expect four more years of continued employment and job opportunities in a Gore Administration.