I think your estimates are probably pretty good, nhn. And DJ is right in his/her post - DOJ has already announced investigation.
I really hope I'm wrong with my estimates. However, when there's that drip, drip, drip, of one more company being investigated, the overall effect on our markets will be felt.
I would also like to see the NYSE get active in investigating their members...but considering that MARTHA STEWART is one of their board members, I fear their oversight will be muted.