Egypt's al Qaeda Intelligence Forcing Saudis Into Corner

Summary

The Saudi Arabian government recently announced the capture of suspected al Qaeda members, while simultaneously publicizing its release of Saudi citizens who fought in Afghanistan. Egyptian intelligence about al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia is forcing the kingdom to act publicly to appease Washington. However, it must balance this with contrasting announcements at home -- or risk domestic opposition boiling over.

Analysis

London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al Hayat reported June 17 that 160 Saudi citizens who were arrested in January after returning home from Afghanistan have been released. According to Saudi security sources, the men had carried out military operations in Afghanistan against U.S. and Northern Alliance forces. Nevertheless, they were judged not to have engaged in "any activity threatening to the security of Saudi Arabia or other countries," the paper reported.

Only one day later, Saudi officials announced that they had arrested seven suspected members of al Qaeda several months ago. The group, consisting of six Saudis and a Sudanese, were accused of planning to attack "key installations" -- including the Prince Sultan air base used by U.S. troops -- with explosives and surface-to-air missiles, Agence France-Presse reported. Discarded firing tubes from missiles have been found near U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia.

Both the al Qaeda arrests and the prisoners' release were well known to U.S. intelligence. Therefore, the most interesting question is not only why the Saudis made the announcement, but also why now? It appears the Saudis are feeling the heat from an Egyptian investigation into al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia, and they must therefore make a reluctant public show of support to the United States. However, they also must be careful to avoid being seen as Washington's puppet.

The Saudis are playing to two different audiences, the first of which is domestic. There are elements in the country, including influential Saudis, that are sympathetic to al Qaeda, and there are many more who are profoundly uncomfortable with the U.S. military's continuing presence. The Saudi government must move cautiously to placate these factions.

On the other hand, the Saudis also must play to the United States, which not only is a superpower capable of destabilizing the entire region, but also has military forces inside the kingdom. The Saudis use the Americans to protect the regional balance of power. They cannot afford a complete breach with the United States, and so are moving along a tightrope. They must convince the United States that they are cooperating against al Qaeda, while at the same time demonstrating to the domestic factions that they are not cooperating too much. Balance is everything.

For obvious reasons the Saudis are more willing to work with the United States secretly than in public. The United States, however, needs public indications of support backed by effective action to bolster the domestic American opinion of the Saudis -- which is not particularly positive right now -- and to generate the sense that the Saudis are part of an effective operating coalition.

While the Americans need the Saudis to give them something public, Riyadh cannot do so unless it can also demonstrate its independence. Thus we have the virtually hand-in-hand announcements of al Qaeda operatives captured and Afghan combatants released.

That explains the why but not the reason making the announcement now. Apart from the general pressure being applied by the United States, an interesting incident occurred in Egypt late last week: Security forces arrested Salah Hashem, a co-founder of the radical Al-Gama'a al-Islamiya Islamic organization, which is blamed for the massacre of tourists at Luxor, Egypt, in 1997.

Hashem has been considered a moderate in Al-Gama'a and supports a cease-fire agreement between the group and the government. Speculation surrounding his arrest did not necessarily imply that he was a threat, only that he knew a great deal about close links between Al-Gama'a and al Qaeda. Many of al Qaeda's members are Egyptians who were originally Al-Gama'a members.

The Egyptians have been cooperating actively with U.S. intelligence, and Hashem's detention is important because it indicates two things. First, the willingness to arrest him shows that the Egyptians are confident that they have Al-Gama'a under control. Second, it exhibits the fact that the Egyptians are reaching a level of clarity about the structure of al Qaeda that was not available before. They would not arrest Hashem on a vague fishing expedition -- but only if they felt that he knew critically important things about al Qaeda.

One of the things he likely has knowledge of is the relationship between the two most important elements in al Qaeda: Egyptian and Saudi members. Hashem worked in Saudi Arabia from 1982 to 1985 and could therefore have information on people and activities there. This is a critically important addition to the intelligence Egypt has gathered about al Qaeda in general and the presence and structure of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia in particular.

Such information also disallows the Saudis plausible deniability. The intelligence that the Egyptians have gathered through this and many other arrests has put the Saudi government in a position wherein Washington would regard failure to act on this information as a refusal to cooperate. The Saudis cannot afford this.

Therefore, not only must they act; they must act publicly. This is why the arrests of the al Qaeda suspects that occurred months ago have been announced now, and it is safe to assume that further arrests that have not yet been announced are being made.

At the same time, the Saudis can't just "cooperate." For every action, there will be a local reaction. Hence, linked with the announcement of the al Qaeda arrests is the announcement of the release of Saudis who fought in Afghanistan. For the U.S. government, a much more important al Qaeda cell has been taken down publicly while a much less critical group of operatives have been released to appease domestic critics and assure them that the kingdom remains independent.

This may achieve the balance between the needs of the Saudis and the United States, but if the Egyptians create problems for the Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia is increasing contact with Sudan -- Sudanese President Omar Bashir traveled to the country June 17 -- which the Saudis could possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.

I have a hunch Bin Laden is hiding in Saudi Arabia.

That would be the ultimate betrayal on so many levels by the Saudis.

Imagine what a mess it would be if we were to find out he was hiding there. It isn't that far fetched an idea ....easy for him to slip into Saudi Arabia if he greases some palms..

I have a hunch Bin Laden is hiding in Saudi Arabia..

That's not an impossible scenario to envision. Especially if he should surface, with say a blue turban around Mecca

Especially if he should surface, with say a blue turban around Mecca.

Nostradamus? Come off it, we're getting into Reynolds Wrap country big-time. :)

Time to sign another supersecret order to assasinate the House Saud, and all its minions.

Unless we’re ready to invade the country and occupy it for decades, this isn’t a good idea.

Those lurking in the shadows are even worse than the House of Saud.

It might be better to kill just a few princes, to put the fear of Allah in the rest of them.

Nostradamus? Come off it, we're getting into Reynolds Wrap country big-time. :)

Even tin-foilers are right sometimes ..... of course, I don't have an example that comes to mind. ;)

Time to sign another supersecret order to assasinate the House Saud, and all its minions.

I don't believe the Saud government can survive the liberation of Baghdad. This is going to put in motion a series of upheavals that will have the side-effect of ending their rule, at least in its current form.

I think they see that too.

I thought last fall that Bin Laden's second move would be on Saudi Arabia -- kill the King and his underlings, etc with huge truck bombs then attempt to take over the country. A week or two after 9/11, during the chaos, would have been perfect timing.

Thank goodness that Bin Laden isn't a strategic thinker. I'm beginning to think he never had a master plan and never will since we killed him in the bombing of Tora Bora.

I thought last fall that Bin Laden's second move would be on Saudi Arabia

You're assuming the well publicized "hatred" bin Laden has for the royal family is real. It might just be a scam enabling the Saudis to act like they're on the "terrorist" hit list, too.

How helpful were the Saudis in the Khobal (sp?) Towers incident? How many terrorists have been recruited in Saudi financed mosques around the world? Have there been any terrorist attacks on Saudi installations?

A couple of days ago, a FReeper posted the Arabic word for "blessed lie". From the Hadith a blessed lie is one that advances Islam. (I hope the word pops up again. This time I'll try to remember.) IMHO, the Saudis are blessed liars.

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