SWABI: Smallpox epidemic spreading in Swabi

Pakistani Dawn ^ | 8 June 2002 | By Muqaddam Khan

[Mitchell]

One of the reasons bio-terrorism may not be used is that once un-leashed its spread may not be controlled and that the West would be better to handle it but the third world would get screwed.

Yes, this is why anthrax (which is not contagious) is a greater threat in practice than smallpox (which is very contagious).

Smallpox would not be a targeted biological weapon. Its use only makes sense as a desperate act by someone who is convinced that their last chance for success lies in disrupting world order everywhere, killing indiscriminately (with, in fact, a worse effect in the third world than in the medically better-prepared developed countries).

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

Promed claimed that the Kurds might be misslabeling the illness. Now we have Urdu speakers doing the same thing? There is one English word known worldwide, Smallpox. I doubt very much that smallpox could be misrepresented. There are still people alive today on the planet that carry the scar of smallpox. No way that could be mislabeled, especially in countries like Pakistan, NE Iraq, and those in Africa. Those populations remember all to well smallpox.

Pakistani and Indian as well as Iraqi doctors are all too familiar with the disease. Last year there was both chickenpox and measles outbreaks in the area and no one called the outbreaks smallpox.
It is too simplistic to label these people backward and uneducated and unaware of a disease that ravaged their land for too many years in their history.

The Indian Army has been rumoured (by those inside, reporting to family and friends) to be ready to strike Pakistan by last weekend. May 25 was the actual date of the "two weeks to go" warning. What would you say? Come on by, bring the wife and kids. By the Way, we've got a smallpox epidemic here. It would surely give them pause and break the momentum of the thrust, and appears to have done just that! Remember, truth is the first casualty of war.
This considered, note this ProMed article from 6 weeks ago titled UNDIAGNOSED VESICULAR DISEASE - PAKISTAN (SINDH): REQUEST FOR INFO

<BRpd

[Mitchell]

This considered, note this ProMed article from 6 weeks ago titled UNDIAGNOSED VESICULAR DISEASE - PAKISTAN (SINDH): REQUEST FOR INFO

This one isn't from 6 weeks ago; it's from April 15, 2001. If that had been smallpox, it would have spread by now. The other ProMED articles that I linked to are from 2002 (April and May), but I don't think these mention smallpox (just a mysterious illness in the same general region of Pakistan).

I agree with you that the current report of smallpox isn't just a mistake. The editors of Dawn surely know that they are, at the very least, writing a sensationalistic article (and, at worst, spreading intentional disinformation) when they claim, apparently without real evidence, that the illness is smallpox.

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

My bad!!

Heavens, I can not believe I made a mistake that is so obvious ...grrr
Good catch.

~A :)

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

I just received this "official" response via email from the CDC Yawn...---What are your thoughts on this?


Your inquiry is being answered by The CDC Public Response Service.

The last exposure of smallpox was in 1978 and it was in a laboratory setting. There has not been a case of smallpox in over 20 years. Any confirmed case of smallpox would generate immediate worldwide response.

Thank you for contacting the CDC. We hope this has been helpful.

If you have any additional questions about bioterrorism, please call the CDC Public Response Service at 1-888-246-2675 or visit the CDC Bioterrorism web site at: www.bt.cdc.gov .
Please feel free to reply with any additional questions to: cdcresponse@ashastd.org.

[Cascadians]

A big blow-off, aka form letter :-) We found another reported "outbreak" of "smallpox," this one in India:

[hlth] Shift in U.S. Smallpox Vaccination Policy Recommended (2 pages)

You'd think the CDC would at least show a smidgen of interest?

Various PTB have publicly proclaimed that a single case of smallpox, anywhere in the world, would constitute an immediate international security threat.

An immediate international medical emergency.

A crime of unprecedented proportion.

A real danger of civilization destruction.

But how are they REALLY going to handle it? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Who knows. All this has its odd points.
Sunflower, sure do appreciate your efforts!
Don't stop.

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

This snip below outlines the guidelines mandated in the event of a confirmed, or even a suspected outbreak of smallpox.

You will find the rest of the InfoHere

Smallpox is classified as a hot agent in Biosafety Level 4 category, which means that a single case, anywhere in the world would be considered a global medical emergency. If smallpox infection is suspected, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Emergency Response Office should be immediately notified.

In the event of an outbreak of even a single case of smallpox, emergency powers are assumed by local, state, and federal authorities according to a chain of command and division of responsibilities. CDC personnel will rush to the scene with protective gear, vaccine, and whatever equipment is needed to collect samples.
It is the responsibility of the Biosafety Level 4 labs to evaluate specimens at CDC or at select Department of Defense (DOD) laboratories. (10)

Travel may be restricted and quarantines imposed. Civil liberties and constitutional rights tend to fare badly during national emergencies of this gravity.

[Mitchell]

Sorry -- when I posted the links, I was thinking in the back of my head that the fact that just one of them was from 2001 might be confusing; I should have specifically mentioned it.

[Mitchell]

This letter from the CDC looks like a form letter, doesn't it?

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

Cascadians graciously sent me to This article
I've posted snips of the story below--

Outbreak of Smallpox in Barachatti
Gaya, 14 April.

There is news that hundreds of people are struck by fear due the dreadful outbreak of Smallpox in the village of Amukhapa...
Ramdev Prasad issued a bulletin in which he said that in Amukhupa village the outbreak of small pox had spread.
Smallpox was also visible in villages surrounding the area.
Due to the outbreak of Smallpox hundreds of people were struck by fear but the health department had so far taken no notice of it.

Something just does not seem right here.

[keri]

You guys please double check this: Barachatti is in India, isn't it???

[keri]

I see the info in #26. I'm sorry. This is very, very odd.

[Mitchell]

I agree; this is very strange. I still do not believe that it is smallpox. But something is going on with these two different rumors, one from Pakistan and one from India. Here is some more information on the supposed outbreak in India.

From BodhgayaNews, April 25, 2002:

Outbreak of Smallpox in Barachatti
Gaya, 24 April. The Dainik Jagran reports that there is news that hundreds of people are struck by fear due the dreadful outbreak of Smallpox in the village of Amukhapa in the Barachatti block of the district. [Note: Barachatti is just to the south of Bodhgaya. It is also possible that the Hindi word 'cecak' which means smallpox, is being used to refer to a condition like smallpox here, rather than smallpox itself:-PGF]

This also links to the longer article mentioned in post #26 above; here it is:

Outbreak of Smallpox in Barachatti
Gaya, 14 April. There is news that hundreds of people are struck by fear due the dreadful outbreak of Smallpox in the village of Amukhapa in the Barachatti block of the district. Ramdev Prasad, the Organiser of the Peoples Committee of the Dobhi block asserting this claim asked for speedy provision of medical aid by the District Administration and Civil Surgeon. Ramdev Prasad, the Organiser of the Peoples Committee of the Dobhi block issued a bulletin in which he said that for the last fortnight in Amukhupa village in the Cataluka Panchayat the outbreak of small pox had spread. Smallpox was also visible in villages surrounding the area. Due to the outbreak of Smallpox hundreds of people were struck by fear but the health department had so far taken no notice of it. Mr Prasad asked for the provision of appropriate medical care to stop the Smallpox from the local officials and District Administration and Civil Surgeon.

Barachatti (or Barachati) is in Bihar, in northeastern India. Here is a map showing Bihar:



Here are two maps showing Barachati in Bihar (look in the south central area):

[lavaroise]

Is this monkeypox?

[Mitchell]

Here's another ProMED link. This is a case from January, 2001, also in India, where villagers ascribed the deaths of 5 children to smallpox, but a doctor who visited the village said that the children he examined were suffering from measles, not smallpox. (The article points out that measles and smallpox were only distinguished from one another during the Middle Ages.)

These various reports of smallpox are likely all to be false reports from isolated villages without physicians. It's possible that somebody is spreading rumors, however. (A major newspaper like Dawn surely knows better.)

[keri]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable knowing the CDC or the WHO has investigated the claims. Maybe they have (in all likelihood) and the Western press hasn't found it newsworthy for whatever reason.

Thanks for posting the maps.

[Sweet_Sunflower29]

OK now folks, something smells here. While I have a difficult time accepting that 'smallpox' has been misidentified as something as benign as chickenpox, measels, or whatever *numerous times* now, I'll freely admit that little anymore shocks me, and this could be nothing more then sunburn or something.

My concern is the LACK of confirmation one way or another by any reputable organization I guess.

A year ago, the idea of anyone hijacking and then using passenger jets as missles was nothing more then the opening chapter in a Tom Clancy novel. Ditto inhilation anthrax. Remember how staunchly the CDC insisted that the initial cases were caused by 'drinking from a stream', 'working in a garden' and 'hiking in the mountains'? This could possibly be another unprecidented incident that we are seeing with these supposed smallpox cases.

I just don't know how the CDC et all. can think that claims of SP like this can all be swept under a rug and blindly accepted as nothing more then a confusion of terms without more and more citizens demanding to know what is going on. People want to see action, see test results and be kept informed as to what is going on. The 'informing' process withOUT seeing any action or diagnostic proof is unsetteling, and while some may take it as truth, the numbers of those who don't are increasing as more and more delve deeper into these ideas.


rant for the day finished/>

[Mitchell]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable knowing the CDC or the WHO has investigated the claims.

I agree.

[Mitchell]

My concern is the LACK of confirmation one way or another by any reputable organization I guess.

Agreed.

I just don't know how the CDC et all. can think that claims of SP like this can all be swept under a rug and blindly accepted as nothing more then a confusion of terms....

I don't think the CDC has even said this much, have they? I don't think they've responded at all, not even with a statement saying that these incidents were a confusion of smallpox with other diseases.

On the other hand, I'm not aware of a single report from a medical doctor in India or Pakistan including a diagnosis of smallpox (or a related orthopox virus). A lay person is simply not qualified to make such a diagnosis (especially when you consider that the villagers generally have little education and do not much available in the way of reference books). There's also the language translation problem in these reports.

If this were smallpox, some local physician in a nearby bigger town would certainly take an interest, and we'd hear about it. Moreover, the absence of reported deaths and the fact that the outbreak seems to be limited primarily to children seem to imply that this is not smallpox. I suppose it could be camelpox or something like that, but the best guess is probably still measles.

[Cascadians]

There are also reports of "smallpox" "outbreaks" in India:

Three die from Smallpox fury in Barachatti Village

[hlth] Shift in U.S. Smallpox Vaccination Policy Recommended (2 pages, and many other threads with breaking smallpox news on TimeBomb2000 Forum

" Three die from Smallpox fury in Barachatti Village

Barachatti 4 June, (Dainik Jagran). In Patiauna village of Vinda Council in Barachatti block a dreadful outbreak of smallpox is raging. Due to the smallpox so far three children have died and about a dozen children are in its grip. So far in order to treat and cure the smallpox so far no steps have been taken by the medical department due to which the villagers are angry.

Gaya District Equality [Party] chairman Indradev Pasvan has asked the DM to not delay in distributing appropriate medications to the effected children and asked for suitable measures to be taken for protection from this sickness, so that the remaining children may be saved. Mr Paswan said that if this sickness was not quickly brought under control then it might turn into an epidemic."