Interesting. The Dim line and the Independent line are pretty much identical.
For anyone who really wants to understand what a scam polls are (no matter who takes and publishes them) read "MOBocracy How the media's obsession with polling twists the news, alters elections, and undermines democracy," by Matthew Robinson, 2002, Forum/Prima Publishing.
A few nuggets from an excellent, well-researched book that is chock full of real-world examples:
- "Just because polling suits the needs of the media does not mean that representative democracy is better off for it. Just as we must be careful of the wording and methodology in any poll, so too must we be vigilant about how poll results are reported and portrayed...We must also question how and when polls are deployed, because the questions they ask are as important as the results they obtain...Many methodological factors can bias a poll or affect the results in subtle ways." (Bold added for emphasis.)
- "Using polls, journalists reason from effect to cause."
- "The media rarely police themselves and almost never acknowledge their own errors or mistakes..."
- "Media polls aren't just a shallower measure of opinion; they also often create the false impression that public opinion is settled."
- "Instead of challenging media stories or operating as just another source, polls are deployed after the shock troops of political accusation or media expose have hit the public..."
- "When it suits its purpose, the elite community of national journalists is quite capable of ignoring the polls it so adamantly presses in its own stories."
- "When the media conduct a poll that attacks...they stop being simple observers and become active agents."
- "Despite the media's seemingly careful attention to methodology and modern knowledge of statistics and sampling, polls today can be wildly misleading for a number of reasons, few of which are ever clearly explained to the public..."
- "Although journalists and political elites pay close attention to poll numbers and trends in opinion, a simple understanding of methodology casts doubt upon much of the reportage that purports to herald new voter trends."
- "The sad truth is, the polling industry doesn't know how to evaluate the accuracy of its results."
- "Polling is not a serene castle in the air that sits above the tumult of politics. It is not a neutral ground in political debate."
Note: I also posted this on the "The Coming Bush Landslide" thread before seeing this thread.