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To: Tribune7

I saw. I answered.

Atheists Improve Society #997

Here's how you put it in post 579:

Dr. Harold Morowitz, former professor of biophysics at Yale University, estimated that the probability of the chance formation of the smallest, simplest form of living organism known is 1 out of 10^340,000,000.

Unfortunately, that "impossible odds" argument is par for the creationist course:

Harold Morowitz

Scientific ignorance also leads to the abuse of such citations, and you have to carefully pay attention to context. Coppedge, for instance, also cites (on p. 235) Harold J. Morowitz, Energy Flow in Biology (p. 99), who reports that (paraphrased by Coppedge) "under 'equilibrium' conditions (the stable state reached after initial reactions have balanced), the probability of such a fluctuation during Earth's history would be...1 chance in 10^339,999,866." In particular, this is "the probability of chance fluctuations that would result in sufficient energy for bond formation" needed to make a living cell. This statistic is laughable not only for its outrageous size, but for the mere absurdity of anyone who would bother to calculate it--but what is notable is that it has nothing to do with the origin of life. For notice the qualification: these are not the odds of the first life forming, but the odds of enough energy being available for any life to grow at all, in an environment which has reached an effective state of thermal equilibrium--a condition which has never existed on Earth. It is obvious that in an equilibrium state, with no solar or geothermal input, it would be impossible for life to gather enough energy to go on. Who needs to calculate the odds against it? Morowitz was demonstrating a fact about the effects of maximized entropy on a chemical system, not the unlikelihood of life originating in a relatively low entropy environment like the early or even current Earth. The fact is that life began in, and has always enjoyed, an active chemical system that is not only far from equilibrium, but receiving steady energy input from the sun and earth. So this statistic has no bearing on the question of the odds of life.

IOW, as I read it, Morowitz is saying that after the universe experiences its heat death, it will be impossible for even one cell to form - spontaneously or not! - because there won't be any energy gradients left to tap into for the required energy.

If impossible odds arguments are persuasive to you, you should read the other examples on that page. They're real eye-openers.

610 posted on 06/14/2002 2:31:30 PM PDT by jennyp
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To: jennyp
IOW, as I read it, Morowitz is saying that after the universe experiences its heat death . . .,

I think you are reading it wrong which it isn't hard to do since it rather poorly written. The article you posted is basically a criticism of James Coppedge who cited Morowitz, -- a biophysicist and Robinson Professor in Biology and Natural Philosophy at George Mason University, with a Ph.d from Yale where he was an associate professor of biophysics, something not noted in the link.

A direct attack on Morowitz's assumption of a 239-minimum protein genome can be found in the critic of Coppedge at your link.

Since the link you provided has a very strong evolutionary bias let me give you a different view which expounds on Morowtiz's position and features his math.

614 posted on 06/14/2002 8:34:50 PM PDT by Tribune7
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