Democrats also are eyeing GOP Sen. Gordon Smith in OREGON and think they could have a chance for open seats in SOUTH CAROLINA and TENNESSEE. Forget about SC, Dems. And I think Gordon Smith became pretty safe when Kitzhaber turned down the Dems.
In addition to the races listed above, I think the GOP has an outside shot at stealing Illinois from Durbin. And I'm quite surprised Baucus in Montana didn't make this target list. True, Baucus is loaded and the GOP didn't get Racicot to run, but the numbers in MT favor the Pubbies. I think the race closes up considerably now that the primary is over, though I still make Baucus the favorite.
A new poll by Research 2000 has Harkin with only 53% of the vote against Ganske and the general election campaign has only begun. I think Ganske will give Harkin a very good race. At least some of that Harkin support is soft, and they'll look at Ganske once they know who he is. I don't see Harkin breaking 53%-- who in the state doesn't know who he is and hasn't a firm opinion already?