We never expected to get more than flyover rights, an air base or two and some logistical support from Musharraf or his generals, despite their very public pronouncements of full support. This is why we made arrangements for other bases in Russia and some of the other Stans. We know he let many of the people we were after escape into his country and then proceed to Kashmir. But our immediate mission was to rid Afghanistan of the Taliban and Binnies boys. We knew some of them would escape and that we would have to hunt them down elsewhere.
Don’t for a minute think that Bush, Rumsfeld or Rice didn’t understand this going in.
Well, things are winding down in Afghanistan, We have bases there now as well in a few neighboring countries, including Russia, with whom we have a new understanding. Meanwhile Musharraf still only plays lip service to the war on terrorism by denying us access into areas where we know the bad guys are hiding, while rounding up the usual harmless suspects as if we don’t know what he is doing.
We also know that Musharraf and his military are responsible for ratcheting up the incursions into India. We know he thought he could get away with it, thinking that our presence would deter India. He was wrong. When India demanded that the Pakistani military better do something, we seconded their position and added, I’m sure, a few more demands regarding the people we were after. Musharraf promised to “do something”. We told everyone we thought he was sincere, even though we didn’t really believe it (do you think Bush and Putin only talked about our missiles?). Essentially we gave Musharraf a chance to put up or shut up. He’s done neither.
Meanwhile, he has managed to royally piss off a heavily armed neighbor with which his country has a running and bitter feud. We have in several statements backed India’s complaints to Musharraf, while asking the Indians not to do anything rash - yet.
India has stated that the presence of U.S. troops, personnel, diplomats and citizens in either country will not be a deterrent should they decide they need to take drastic action. We have not rebuked them for those statements, instead, we have taken them at their word and told our people in India, and Pakistan, to leave if they don’t want to risk the mother of all sun-burns.
Rumsfeld is not going to India. Why? Because we have nothing much to say to India. Rumsfeld is going to Pakistan to talk to Musharraf. Why? Probably to tell them do a quick inventory of their nuclear arsenal and do a little math. He may even have taken the Bush’s copy of Eight Days in October as an audio-visual aid. Or, maybe, Sum of All Fears. They are probably going to be told to real serious about fighting terrorism real fast. That or face the music with India. Rumsfeld will tell them that the calculus doesn't work in their favor and that the prevailing winds blow from west to east across Afghanistan and Pakistan - so Musharraf will know which way the breeze he’s swinging in blows....
Nuclear Blackmail? I think not.
If, after Rumsfeld returns home, you hear of U.S. Troops “re-deploying” to Afghanistan from our “ally” to the east... Then grab a beer, pop some corn, and tune in CNN, cause its gonna be quite a show. Hey! We may even get some live shots from the International Space Station! Won’t that be cool........ I’m looking forward to the show.
Here’s something worth reading from Musharraf: http://www.dawn.com/events/speech/20010919/index.htm
Who told you that?? Rumsfeld is most definitely headed to India. Not as a tourist, either.