Posted on 05/29/2002 4:42:33 PM PDT by Starmaker
The 2004 election is a few days closer than when Part I was written, but the picture isn't getting any clearer. In Part I we explored the chances of nomination of Hillary Clinton, Tom Daschle, Al Gore, Robert Reich, and Jesse Jackson and ranked their probability on a scale of one to ten, with ten being the best chance of being nominated. So far Daschle's in the lead with a generous seven but we still have many more to go. My prediction for the party's nominee will be saved for the last part in this series. Figuring out who the nominee will be is like going to a "Facts of Life" reunion show cast party and trying to decide which girl to slow dance with; plenty to choose from, but no real desirable option.
Joe Biden — The Senator from Delaware is almost certain to at least test the presidential waters. Since 9/11 Biden's gained more exposure than ever as Foreign Relations Committee Chairman and partially thanks to MBNA, the nation's second largest credit card bank that is located in his state, is capable of raising massive funds. Fundraising is a huge factor in any run for office, but Biden's drawback will be that much of his money comes from MBNA. People may not understand the Israeli/Palestinian conflict or complex tax law, but they do know what it's like to pay 21% interest on a stereo.
His opponents will make it understood that just as Joe Citizen gets a credit card bill, Biden, by taking truckloads of money from MBNA, gets a political favors bill from them once a month with a "minimum due" column full of desired goodies. The two senators from Delaware, Roth and Biden, are well known as being MBNA's legislative "indentured prison companions" (a better word is available that I can't use here).
A website, JoeBiden.com, has already been set up by a group called "Citizens for Biden", and at the time of this writing it now accurately displays all the reasons to vote for Biden. Hair that lays back on the top of his head like trees in the Siberian Tunguska Forest post meteor impact can't be all that much help either. He'll raise big money and have regional support, but accepting huge cash from the Delaware financial community's answer to Larry Flynt will do him in nationally. Four.
Warren Beatty — Best known as an actor, activist, and man who's turned over so much trim that many interior decorating companies have made him an honorary wainscoting salesman, Beatty isn't expected to announce that he's running for the 2004 nomination but could still surprise us. Beatty admitted that he entertained the idea of throwing his hat into the ring too late in 1999 for an effective go at it in 2000. Should he decide now, he's got plenty of time to make a fool of himself in 2004. If he does run, in the end Americans will decide they don't want a man in the White House who had poor enough judgment to make "Heaven Can Wait" and date chronic head cases like Madonna.
Beatty's pluses for the Democrats would include feeling at home in front of cameras and his ability to court the far left wing of the party. His negatives are a lack of experience in elected office and the fact that the far left wing of the party already thinks that Martin Sheen is president. If elected, Beatty would be the second member of his family to occupy the White House, the first being back when in a previous life Shirley MacLaine was Abigail Adams. If Beatty runs, he'll make it a little while simply because reporters will cover his speeches just so they can meet Annette Bening. Once that wears off, he ends up with a chance of one. Isn't it about time for a "Dick Tracy II", Warren?
Lyndon LaRouche — At 81, LaRouche's shoe still rings, but he hears it less and less. I give him a chance of zero. Yes Lyndon, you're about to be framed yet again.
Christopher Dodd — The Connecticut senator who, through appearances on television, graciously allows us to see what Phil Donohue would look like after downing a couple of meat-lovers pizza's and then riding on a centrifuge while being pelted with hacky-sack's hasn't ruled out a run at the nomination. Since Connecticut is the home state to a large number of insurance companies, Dodd is a big proponent of tort reform laws. When you meet a Democrat who's a friend of insurance companies you know something's up, and chances are it's up yours.
The upside as far as Dodd is concerned is that he's a very powerful inside the beltway senator. His downside is that he's had very little exposure on a national level. The exposure he does have is the notoriety he gained as the bottom slice of bread in his and his buddy Ted Kennedy's "waitress sandwich." Now there's one ugly hoagie that you're more than likely to see on Satan's dinner table someday. Dodd will also have trouble in a possible debate with any of the more handsome democratic candidates such as John Kerry, John Edwards, or... well, you get the point.
At first glance he looks like the kind of guy who would have all international disputes settled on "Let's Bowl", and that's not good for immediate credibility. Dodd's experience will get him farther than you might think, but northeastern liberals can't make the national cut anymore. Just ask Mike Dukakis, who I think is now in Hawaii working as Don Ho's pool boy. Dodd gets a four, which could change to a one if he gets caught making another senator sandwich at the nausea deli.
John Kerry — Speaking of Mike Dukakis, Kerry, the Connecticut senator, ran for and won the office of Lieutenant Governor under Dukakis in 1982. Kerry was chosen to run as Lieutenant Governor because of his solid legal background, experience in veteran affairs, and for being noticed as the only one awake after a Dukakis speech one night. I'd have to vote Kerry as my dark horse favorite for the nomination. He's got the experience, the stature, fairly good looks, the initials JFK, is a veteran, and more money than the winner of Saudi Arabian Powerball Lotto.
A few years ago Kerry married Teresa Heinz who had inherited her previous husband's more than $600 million fortune. Remember that every time you pull a hot dog off the grill, with every squirt of ketchup you could be helping make John Kerry the next president. Before you go and throw the Heinz ketchup away though, remember that Kerry's chances are pretty slim. Democrats would have to be worried about Kerry's ability to connect with "common people." He can come across as cold and impersonal. Hold off on throwing out the ketchup, but just to be safe it wouldn't be a bad idea switching to mustard for a little while.
Kerry will do well, maybe even win the New Hampshire primary, but when he gets out of the northeast he'll hit a downhill slide that would make Picabu Street envious. A big start out of the blocks and falling back big-time late earns Kerry a six.
In the next installment we'll take a look at five more potential candidates. To be truthful, I think that Jimmy Carter is going to be elected president, but I can't officially predict that since I'm not too familiar with Cuban politics.
To comment on this article or express your opinion directly to the author, you are invited to e-mail Doug at comedywriter@voyager.net .
n.b. No opportunity to remind people of Loony Lyndon's Democrat affiliation should be missed.
"Enter the Democrats the true Rulers of the Republic.... The Republic is not what it once was-the Senate is full of greedy squabbling delegates.There is no interest in the common good.If I'm elected I promise to put an end to corruption.I feel confident our situation will create a strong sympathy vote for us.....Now they will elect an new Chancellor-a strong Chancellor..one who will not let our tragedy continue."
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