[yendu bwam]

without first ruling out a possible unknown naturalistic explanation, which is the most probable option

Well, when you look at the big bang, as an example, which appears to be a one time event, then the naturalistic and intelligent force theories are equally probable, no?

[jlogajan]

Well, when you look at the big bang, as an example, which appears to be a one time event, then the naturalistic and intelligent force theories are equally probable, no?

That would be a false narrowing of choices. And it remains iterative. Who created the creator?