I think as of now, the odds are even-up if Bush wins in 2004. (I know I know...aprroval ratings is at 1995%...)
It's all soft support. Soft support doesn't mean jack. John Engler in 1990 never had more than 38% in the polls...except election day..where he had 50.6% in the polls, the only one he won.
In my case his vote will depend on whether he signs or vetos the ugly gun ban. If he signs it....I don't even want to think about it.