[Charlotte Corday]

Had the South Carolina fire-eaters permitted the US Navy to relieve Fort Sumter, it's very likely that some of the "Northern South" (Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina) would not have seceded and served as a buffer zone, ensuring the survival of a smaller, but secure Confederacy.

So you have to point to the gunfire on Sumter, 12 April 61, as the precipitate "casus belli"

[billbears]

Had the South Carolina fire-eaters permitted the US Navy to relieve Fort Sumter

Considering the tyrant's first address to the nation, it was quite clear the US Navy would not be relieving Fort Sumter as much as resupplying Fort Sumter. abe wanted his tariff money

[RightWhale]

the gunfire on Sumter, 12 April 61, as the precipitate "casus belli"

That was the incident that began the fighting. The Confederacy could have won early if they had advanced into DC following their initial victory. They could have sued for peace if they had prevailed at Gettysburg, which they could possibly have done several times during the engagement, but that was nearly their last chance. The longer the war went on, the dimmer their chances became.

[RobbyS]

I tend yo agree. A South Carolinian also commanded at the Alamo. You know what happened to THAT command. Had Travis had the good sense to follow Houston's orders to abandon that fort, Houston could have begun an orderly retreat to the Lousiana border where an American army waited to trounce an over extended Mexican force.