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Nuclear threat over Kashmir
www.telegraph.co.uk ^ | 22/05/2002 | Anton Le Guardia, Diplomatic Editor and Rahul Bedi in New Delhi

Posted on 05/22/2002 8:51:01 AM PDT by lyonesse

Britain sounded the alarm over the risk of nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan yesterday as the assassination of a moderate Kashmiri leader threw the region into further chaos.

An Indian soldier mans a machine gun in Jammu Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, announced that he would fly to the area next week to try to stop the two countries sliding into war.

"The possibility of war is real and very disturbing," Mr Straw said. "This is a crisis the world cannot ignore. India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and a capacity to use them and have talked about a possible nuclear exchange."

Tensions along the India-Pakistan border rose after a suicide attack by three suspected Kashmiri militants killed more than 30 people at an army base in Jammu last week. India said it would retaliate against Pakistan, which it blames for supporting the rebels.

Further turmoil came yesterday with the killing in Srinagar of Abdul Ghani Lone, a leader of the All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference, a conglomerate of 23 Muslim political parties and social groups campaigning against Indian rule in Kashmir.

Witnesses said Mr Lone, 70, was shot dead by two masked men dressed in police uniforms. They said that before escaping, the unidentified gunmen rolled a grenade into the crowd but it did not explode. India and Pakistan blamed each other.

With more than one million soldiers mobilised along the border, and the armies trading artillery and machine-gun fire for the sixth day, British officials said India and Pakistan could go to war "with the click of a finger". Once started, military escalation would be difficult to stop.

Officials said neither country had a clear nuclear doctrine or established "hotlines" to manage a nuclear crisis. Pakistan fears being overwhelmed by its giant neighbour and has refused to rule out the "first use" of nuclear weapons.

A senior British diplomat said: "One scenario is that the Indians will attack and will get a bloody nose from the better-trained Pakistani army. They will throw in a bigger force and the Pakistanis could use nuclear weapons."

British and US officials are shuttling between the two sides to try to ease tensions and, should war break out, to improve communication to stop use of nuclear weapons.

Mr Straw's trip to Islamabad and New Delhi is part of a diplomatic relay designed to maintain an almost permanent presence of high-level envoys in the region.

Christina Rocca, America's assistant secretary of state, was there last week and Chris Patten, an EU commissioner, is visiting at the moment. Mr Straw will be followed by Richard Armitage, the US deputy secretary of state.

Mr Straw said he would not carry "a pre-cooked peace plan" to resolve the core dispute over the status of Kashmir, a mainly Muslim state divided between India and Pakistan since the partition of British-ruled India in 1947. British officials said they would discuss the issue privately, but their role would "fall short of mediation or intervention".

India has resisted all outside involvement in Kashmir on the grounds that it is an internal issue. Mr Straw placed the main responsibility for ending the crisis on Pakistan. He said President Musharraf had more to do in restraining Pakistan-based militant groups. "There is a pressing need for an end to terrorism."

However, some British ministers believe that without early international involvement, Gen Musharraf would not be able to turn his back on the "jihad" for Kashmir. "If he is to give up the policy of infiltrations he needs an alternative," said one.

India's prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, who was visiting Kashmir, said Mr Lone's death "will have an impact, but it should not hurt peace moves". He added: "Stronger efforts should be made to bring peace. He was working for peace which is why he was killed."


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: india; pakistan; southasialist; terror

1 posted on 05/22/2002 8:51:01 AM PDT by lyonesse
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To: lyonesse
Straw, the Foreign Secretary, announced that he would fly to the area next week

While I agree the prospects of war are reaching critical mass (npi), Straw doesn't seem too concerned if he is going "next week". Does he know something, like that "next week" may be too late??
2 posted on 05/22/2002 8:55:50 AM PDT by My Identity
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To: lyonesse
War between these two countries would be a disaster for both of them, as well as for our own war against terrorism.
3 posted on 05/22/2002 8:57:36 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: lyonesse
Somehow this is not big news on the TV networks. Nobody has spent any real time discussing the implications, the history, or where we stand on this! They are more focused on their "did Bush know" spin. How will this country survive if it's not able to learn any lessons about what's important? Keep being docile sheeple, be in denial.
4 posted on 05/22/2002 9:01:33 AM PDT by aristotleman
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To: lyonesse;4ConservativeJustices
Uh...Ping!
5 posted on 05/22/2002 9:13:43 AM PDT by Ff--150
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To: aristotleman
It isn't the sheeple who determine what is on the broadcast news. It's our all knowing mandarin media class who decide what it is best for us to know.

But they're too busy with their own agenda of posturing to look important and all knowing.

They haven't got a clue about South Asia.

So they don't want to open their mouths and prove it.

6 posted on 05/22/2002 9:26:24 AM PDT by happygrl
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To: lyonesse
Use of Nuclear weapons in war or terrorism would be a nasty line to cross, but it won't be the end of the world. It would be more like Chernoble and a 9-11 combined. It could even serve as a warning sign to those who think they would benefit from their use. If the Muslims use a nuke to attack a western nation, it would be the beginning of the end for them. If India or Pakistan use them unilaterally, it would be politically disasterous.

BTW, the most likely place for nukes to be used is by the Israelis against several of it's neighbors. Those Israelis are not mentally balanced.

7 posted on 05/22/2002 9:31:06 AM PDT by Born to Conserve
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To: happygrl
Our media is even worse than al-Jazeera. At least the arabs spew lies. Our media is merely ignorant. I agree that the sheeple don't dictate, but why is it that the media thinks we want ignorant news? Are we superficial, like the TV portrays, or full of intelligence and passion about this country? Can we change the media?

I'm not into "educating the masses" or anything like that, I just want to watch educated news.

8 posted on 05/22/2002 9:32:46 AM PDT by aristotleman
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To: *southasia_list
Check the Bump List folders for articles related to and descriptions of the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.
9 posted on 05/22/2002 9:37:48 AM PDT by Free the USA
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To: My Identity
I doubt it. If India really is planning something then I doubt if it'll be anytime soon. Kashmiri elections are coming up this summer and India has high hopes for some improvement. You may be see some surgical strikes against terror camps in the Fall, but a lot of what India is saying is intended to focus international attention on the region and put pressure on Pakistan. Of course, with over a million troops eyeball to eyeball on either side of the LoC a minor incident could snowball into a war at anytime.

Dangerous times.

10 posted on 05/22/2002 10:14:04 AM PDT by maquiladora
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To: aristotleman
Last time they had a war there, there was little interest over here. Even if they let off a couple dozen nukes this time, there will still be little interest. They might as well be on a different planet.
11 posted on 05/22/2002 10:20:02 AM PDT by RightWhale
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To: Born to Conserve
"Those Israelis are not mentally balanced."

Another Jew-hater exposed.

12 posted on 05/22/2002 10:39:35 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty
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To: Cyber Liberty
I believe "Born to Conserve" has proven himself to be not mentally balanced.
13 posted on 05/22/2002 10:44:35 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Born to Conserve
Do you want to discuss the mental stability of Israelis?
14 posted on 05/22/2002 10:47:45 AM PDT by aristotleman
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