Posted on 05/20/2002 3:18:47 PM PDT by Axion
Is Al Qaeda Probing Itself For Weaknesses? U.S. government officials have reported a recent upsurge in communication between suspected al Qaeda affiliates. Although the information about this increase in "chatter" is limited (and STRATFOR can only speculate) it's possible that al Qaeda is engaging in a form of counter-counter-intelligence.
20 May 2002
Prior to launching its previous major attacks, al Qaeda established a pattern of disseminating false information about its intentions. This served to divert and distract U.S. defensive countermeasures and, over time, to induce a kind of 'alert fatigue.' The recent upsurge in al Qaeda communications has raised concerns in the United States that the network may be repeating its pattern of pre-attack false alarms ahead of another major strike.
However, while small-scale attacks are possible at any time, an operation of the magnitude of Sept. 11 requires a great deal of planning and coordination. Al Qaeda historically has taken two or more years to prepare for operations of this sort. Enough time has not passed since September to prepare for another massive attack, especially given the intense U.S. efforts to disrupt the al Qaeda network.
Furthermore, although al Qaeda historically has not developed multiple operations simultaneously, had the organization prepared a follow-on attack before launching the Sept. 11 strike, it would still need to evaluate how much of that planned operation survived the post-attack U.S. countermeasures.
As U.S. and allied military forces pummeled al Qaeda command centers and training camps in Afghanistan, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies -- in cooperation with foreign governments -- plowed broadside into the network's communications, transportation and logistical infrastructure across the globe. The United States and its allies arrested many identified al Qaeda suspects, but undoubtedly did not arrest them all. Instead, some suspected al Qaeda members likely were left alone to be monitored in the hope that they unwittingly lead authorities to the rest of the network.
Al Qaeda has always placed the highest priority on security in its operations. Without careful attention to security, the group could not have carried out an operation that took years to plan, train for and finance, involving personnel on at least four continents and team members residing for extended periods inside the United States. If it is to launch another major operation, even one planned prior to Sept. 11, al Qaeda must first identify who in the organization has been compromised.
This could explain the increased "chatter" within al Qaeda that is being picked up by U.S. intelligence agencies. The network now could be carefully targeting communications to their operatives in the field and listening to see which pieces of information wind up as non-specific threat warnings issued by the FBI. Since the U.S. government is paranoid about the possibility of an attack occurring again without warning, al Qaeda can count on it to broadcast any information that is intercepted.
Before now, al Qaeda's command structure was too busy dodging bombs to carry out a serious security evaluation of the organization. And as long as the United States was actively arresting people, al Qaeda commanders would not want to risk inadvertently exposing a secure asset by contacting him. But before al Qaeda can act again, it must determine which of its assets remain secure.
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