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Folks, there is a significant chance that India is going to launch at least a "limited" attack on Pakistan within the next few days.

And if it does so, there is then a significant chance that the conflict will quickly escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. Pakistan has already announced it intends to use nuclear weapons if India launches a successful conventional attack upon it.

Have a nice day.

1 posted on 05/17/2002 5:32:27 PM PDT by TheConservator
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To: TheConservator
Pakistan has already announced it intends to use nuclear weapons if India launches a successful conventional attack upon it.

Despite the great size of India's military I have serious doubts that it can logistically support it well enough to enable any sort of meaningful victories that would lead to exchange of nukes. Having said that the chaos and cost of war may in turn lead to internal problems in Pakistan and the establishment of an unfriendly government there (see Russia 1917).

2 posted on 05/17/2002 5:36:13 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: TheConservator
Folks, there is a significant chance that India is going to launch at least a "limited" attack on Pakistan within the next few days.

And if it does so, there is then a significant chance that the conflict will quickly escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

We've been hearing this for 6 months straight. Whatever....

3 posted on 05/17/2002 5:36:49 PM PDT by Excuse_My_Bellicosity
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To: TheConservator
Rets get Ready to Rumble.
6 posted on 05/17/2002 5:42:04 PM PDT by miamimark
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To: TheConservator
...US had failed to fulfil promises to restrain Pakistan from supporting terrorism. India, therefore, would take "appropriate action"...

HOW do we restrain them? We can't even restrain Saudi Arabia, another "ally", from supporting terrorism. Invade Pakistan like Afghanistan?

"Pakistan with current population of 137.5 million is the seventh most populous country in the world, fourth in Asia...".

We'll force 'em to get a new Muslim president that's a lot worse than Musharref, maybe? What exactly does India suggest we do?

7 posted on 05/17/2002 5:46:04 PM PDT by xJones
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To: TheConservator
Hot summer?
11 posted on 05/17/2002 5:51:07 PM PDT by Elenya
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To: TheConservator
OBL clearly wants to unify all of Islam against the West. He has two main opportunities: War in the Middle East, and/or war between India and Pakistan.

It does not get much press in the U.S. compared to the Middle East, but efforts to stir up war between India and Pakistan have been quite intense.

Looks like OBL is stalled in the Middle East. Maybe not in Kashmir.

12 posted on 05/17/2002 5:52:20 PM PDT by EternalHope
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To: TheConservator
I bet we know were Pak's nukes are and would take them out if they tried to launch.
13 posted on 05/17/2002 5:59:09 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: TheConservator
Certainly this area will be in full-blown war by year-end. But you'd better bookmark this because DEMS will want to know what the president knew about it and when he knew it while they feign ignorance.
16 posted on 05/17/2002 6:03:17 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: TheConservator
Certainly this area will be in full-blown war by year-end. But you'd better bookmark this because DEMS will want to know what the president knew about it and when he knew it while they feign ignorance.
17 posted on 05/17/2002 6:03:18 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: TheConservator
Hmmm,a little foreshadowing.
20 posted on 05/17/2002 6:10:55 PM PDT by mdittmar
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To: TheConservator
While we go full-bore against al Qaida and the Taliban, we keep expecting Israel and India to "exercise restraint" in the face of an even greater threat.

I hope that the Indians do what they must to protect their citizens in Kashmir, whether it be the forced relocation of Muslims in Kashmir to Pakistan, or making attacks into Pakistan. We--as in the targets of Muslim jihad--must press the attack, and stop simply parrying.

21 posted on 05/17/2002 6:11:10 PM PDT by kezekiel
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To: TheConservator
Good. Let's get it over now.

Better now than when the giant Muslim population has more nukes.

Yes, people will die. Yes, a catastrophy. Yes, it is coming, and better to get it over with now, against this 12th century religion of die hards. They already have displayed many times that they will do whatever it takes to convert us all backwards. Veils and stoning, anyone?

Time for Janet Reno response.

26 posted on 05/17/2002 6:18:20 PM PDT by MonroeDNA
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To: TheConservator
Bump and a bookmark. I was wondering how long India would hold back. We are still tangled under the covers with Pakistan, but we have to be in bed with India as well. This pic from the main page of paknews.com sure causes problems for Condi et al.


29 posted on 05/17/2002 6:24:56 PM PDT by Semper911
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To: TheConservator
I hope this doesn't happen. If it does, though, India should take out all of the fanatical riff raff in Kashmir. Do the world a favor.
36 posted on 05/17/2002 6:35:07 PM PDT by Clara Lou
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To: TheConservator
Ah, another series of India-Pakistan threads are about to sprout up.

For right now rhetoric from Indian political leaders is not enough to get people to worry/anticipate about the possibility of war.

India has to follow a series of drastic political actions before they will launch any cross border action. I'm sure one of the threads with the whole Indian plan which included abrogating the Indus Water Treaty is around somewhere in freep archives.

38 posted on 05/17/2002 6:43:58 PM PDT by ChicagoRepublican
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To: TheConservator
Have a nice day.

Thank you very much.

39 posted on 05/17/2002 6:45:21 PM PDT by TaxPayer2000
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To: TheConservator
It has long been known that the majority of al-Queda are based in Kashmir. Pakistan's ISI has attempted to reign in al-Queda along the Afghanistan border, while allowing them to head to Kashmir, and continue their Jihad. This will be an ugly time, if India does come in, and clearly, there is the possibility of nukes, although somewhat unlikely, as both sides do realize what the cost would be - you may "win" a nuclear exchange with the other side, but you would still be a loser. The cost to both societies would be so great that the most desolate African countries would appear to live in luxury.

If India were to undertake a limited anti-terrorist operation in Kashmire, there is the possibility that they could further weaken al-Queda, as long as we have troops on the other side of the battle lines to catch the fleeing "jihadists". They have proven themselves to be extremely adept at fleeing the battlefield, with only the French as their only peers.

If China, were to somehow become involved, it could cost China dearly as well, as India may lose a conventional exchange with China, and may alos "lose" a nuclear exchange with China, China, although the winner, would be dramatically weakened with a confrontation with India.

40 posted on 05/17/2002 6:55:29 PM PDT by krogers58
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To: TheConservator
They are being very generous in their statements. We have utterly coddled Pakistan way beyond anything warranted by Pakistan's value as a platform to fight the War. If anything, Pakistan would have been far more useful under the combined Indo-American boot, occupied and filled to the brim with combined forces. The forces would then fan out into Iran, Iraq, Nepal, Myanmar, Laos, and perhaps, even part of Russia and China, in order to proactively contain the Trans-Asian Axis prior to the Axis getting the first shot. My plan is precisely the sort of plan that might have prevented WW-II, had, for example, the French and British absolutely swarmed the Rhineland in 1936. Similarly, if we swarm the core of the formative (WW-III) Axis now, we can, by prosecuting WW-III-lite, prevent WW-III-grand.

A place for provoking additional out of the box geopolitical thinking.... only if you dare...

48 posted on 05/17/2002 7:22:38 PM PDT by GOP_1900AD
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To: TheConservator
Additional info from the Hindustani Times:

The Government sought — and won — the Opposition's support for any response, military or otherwise, against Pakistan for Tuesday's attack in Jammu. Parliament was united in saying India would fight to finish Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha [India's parliamentary bodies] adopted identical resolutions on the last day of Parliament's budget session to convey this message.

Even though the Opposition was not satisfied with Home Minister LK Advani's reply to a the debate in the Lok Sabha, it showed considerable restraint and made it clear that its immediate concern was to strengthen the Government's hands.

Nevertheless, [the Opposition] advised the Government, and the BJP, to replace rhetoric with action. “Rhetoric is no substitute for a strategy,” said Leader of the Opposition Sonia Gandhi. Advani praised the Opposition, particularly Sonia Gandhi, for setting the tone of the debate by calling for unity of purpose and action.

Advani said in both Houses he could not reveal India's plans for a response. But he promised the Government would act with purpose after finalising its strategy in consultation with defence officials.

Advani also said Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee would take Opposition leaders into confidence and address the nation on India's response. "A right decision will be taken and you all will be informed. No announcement can be made from Parliament," he said.

Asked by NDA allies and the Opposition why terrorists could not be stopped from carrying out such attacks, Advani said, "We do it if we are able to identify them. This year alone we have eliminated 601 terrorists in intelligence-based operations."

But the Opposition said Tuesday's attack had exposed the weakness of India's security apparatus and the Government had been found wanting in its efforts to sensitize international opinion to India’s position.

One thing said clearly in the Lok Sabha was that the US's pledge to fight global terror was hollow. All parties were “deeply disappointed” that the US, the leader of the international coalition against terrorism, had done little to force Pakistan to stop acts of terrorism in India and instead wanted New Delhi to exercise restraint.

Sonia Gandhi, and CPI(M), Samajwadi Party and Shiv Sena leaders criticised the US. ”We are told that the war on global terror is to be fought wherever terrorism exists,” Sonia Gandhi said. ”But so far we see this as a statement of intent and not as a statement of facts.”

In his reply, Advani acknowledged the Government too was deeply disappointed by Washington's failure to pressure Pakistan to stop violence in J&K. MPs were particularly upset at US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca’s statement that India should not be stubborn when actually it was the victim of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.

The Lok Sabha's resolution at the end of the debate reminded the international community that India had consistently tried to build friendly relations with Pakistan but had not received the desired response.

49 posted on 05/17/2002 7:23:31 PM PDT by TheConservator
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To: TheConservator
I see India attempting to take a page from the Israelis.

I wonder if they intend to perform Special Forces assaults into Pakistan and Kashmir as opposed to introducing conventional military units.

52 posted on 05/17/2002 7:31:55 PM PDT by VaBthang4
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