Posted on 04/27/2002 5:25:11 PM PDT by Pokey78
THE leading Israeli historian Martin van Creveld predicts that a US attack on Iraq or a terrorist strike at home could trigger a massive mobilisation to clear the occupied territories of their two million Arabs
Two years ago, less than eight per cent of those who took part in a Gallup poll among Jewish Israelis said they were in favour of what is euphemistically called "transfer" - that is, the expulsion of perhaps two million Palestinians across the River Jordan. This month that figure reached 44 per cent.
Earlier this year, when a journalist asked Ariel Sharon whether he favoured such a move, the Israeli prime minister said he did not think in such terms. A glance at his memoirs, however, shows that he has not always been so fastidious.
In September 1970 King Hussein of Jordan fell on the Palestinians in his kingdom, killing perhaps 5,000 to 10,000. The then Gen Sharon, serving as Commanding Officer, Southern Front, argued that Israel's policy of helping the king was a mistake; instead it should have tried to topple the Hashemite regime.
He has often said since that Jordan, which, according to him, has a Palestinian majority even now, is the Palestinian state. The inference - that the Palestinians should go there - is clear.
During its 1948 War of Independence, Israel drove 650,000 Palestinians from their homes into neighbouring countries. If it were to try something similar today, the outcome could well be a regional war. More and more people in Jerusalem believe that such is Mr Sharon's objective.
It might explain why Mr Sharon, famous for his ability to plan ahead, appears not to have a plan. In fact, he has always harboured a very clear plan - nothing less than to rid Israel of the Palestinians.
Few people, least of all me, want the following events to happen. But such a scenario could easily come about. Mr Sharon would have to wait for a suitable opportunity - such as an American offensive against Iraq, which some Israelis think is going to take place in early summer.
Mr Sharon himself told Colin Powell, the secretary of state, that America should not allow the situation in Israel to delay the operation.
An uprising in Jordan, followed by the collapse of King Abdullah's regime, would also present such an opportunity - as would a spectacular act of terrorism inside Israel that killed hundreds.
Should such circumstances arise, then Israel would mobilise with lightning speed - even now, much of its male population is on standby.
First, the country's three ultra-modern submarines would take up firing positions out at sea. Borders would be closed, a news blackout imposed, and all foreign journalists rounded up and confined to a hotel as guests of the Government.
A force of 12 divisions, 11 of them armoured, plus various territorial units suitable for occupation duties, would be deployed: five against Egypt, three against Syria, and one opposite Lebanon. This would leave three to face east as well as enough forces to put a tank inside every Arab-Israeli village just in case their populations get any funny ideas.
The expulsion of the Palestinians would require only a few brigades. They would not drag people out of their houses but use heavy artillery to drive them out; the damage caused to Jenin would look like a pinprick in comparison.
Any outside intervention would be held off by the Israeli air force. In 1982, the last time it engaged in large-scale operations, it destroyed 19 Syrian anti-aircraft batteries and shot down 100 Syrian aircraft against the loss of one.
Its advantage is much greater now than it was then and would present an awesome threat to any Syrian armoured attack on the Golan Heights.
As for the Egyptians, they are separated from Israel by 150 miles or so of open desert. Judging by what happened in 1967, should they try to cross it they would be destroyed.
The Jordanian and Lebanese armed forces are too small to count and Iraq is in no position to intervene, given that it has not recovered its pre-1991 strength and is being held down by the Americans. Saddam Hussein may launch some of the 30 to 40 missiles he probably has.
The damage they can do, however, is limited. Should Saddam be mad enough to resort to weapons of mass destruction, then Israel's response would be so "awesome and terrible" (as Yitzhak Shamir, the former prime minister, once said) as to defy the imagination.
Some believe that the international community will not permit such an ethnic cleansing. I would not count on it. If Mr Sharon decides to go ahead, the only country that can stop him is the United States.
The US, however, regards itself as being at war with parts of the Muslim world that have supported Osama bin Laden. America will not necessarily object to that world being taught a lesson - particularly if it could be as swift and brutal as the 1967 campaign; and also particularly if it does not disrupt the flow of oil for too long.
Israeli military experts estimate that such a war could be over in just eight days. If the Arab states do not intervene, it will end with the Palestinians expelled and Jordan in ruins.
If they do intervene, the result will be the same, with the main Arab armies destroyed. Israel would, of course, take some casualties, especially in the north, where its population would come under fire from Hizbollah.
However, their number would be limited and Israel would stand triumphant, as it did in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. Are you listening Mr Arafat?
European history has consisted of population transfers, expulsions, and invasions for four thousand years. Most of them have involved moving actual populations, sometimes their complete destruction, and not moving a people with no real history as a nation a few dozen miles. The idea that the Europeans have any moral standing to condemn the survivors of a massacre that the Europeans perpetrated 60 years ago in their need to ensure their survival is too ridiculous to comment on.
In any case, the Europeans are beginning to come to the realization that they are in a fight against the Islamists for their own survival, and that fight is likely to become increasingly bloody as the months and years go by. This realization has been shown in the last couple of years by the rapid rise of the European right and far-right. When the Europeans start killing their own Arabs, they are hardly likely to quibble at what the Israelis do.
Yes, well, in that case all bets are off. But again, Israel is not going threaten nukes against Europe.
You are spot-on, I think, about Israel's future if she attempts the transfer. She'd go the way of Austria-Hungary and no one would lift a finger to help her. Even Sharon must know this.
So what do we do with the followers of Bela Kun, Leon Trotsky, Lazar Kaganovitch, Rosa Schwartz,Jacob Yurovsky,Genrikh Yagoda,Matvei Berman,Naftaly Frenkel,Isaac Babel,Ilya Ehrenburg,Solomon Morel and Yevgeny Khaldei?
They were involved in a Holocaust which lasted 8 decades.
Finnish, Irish, and German Jewish actually. A little too much Jewish blood for you, I take it?
How well do you think Bush sleeps each night knowing the decisions he makes today help to shape the future of the world over the next 20 years? Whew! That's a load to carry.
And if they start klling their local Muslim populations, God help us all.
There is one basic Oslo perception that I have not seen challenged by Israeli commentators: that Israel cannot rule the West Bank indefinitely without unacceptable costs of more than one kind. The frustration is that there is no present alternative to doing so that isn't worse.
Any two-state solution has to leave Israel with more defensible borders than the '49 borders, and acknowledge the right of Jews to buy land and live in the West Bank; it cannot mean the destruction of the Jewish state by millions of "returning" Palestinians or the establishment of a Murder Inc. with the resources of a state on Israel's borders. There seems to be no way to accomplish that with presently available Palestinian leadership and the nihilistic mood which they have inculcated in at least significant sectors of Palestinian society.
I don't think there is any solution to this without a major shake-up of the strategic balance in the region. Regime change in Iraq and Iran, and at the very least the thorough intimidation of Syria, could be the shake-up required. I don't have a plan; but change will bring new possibilities. What role might Jordan play if Iraq and Iran were no longer threats and Boy Assad lost control of body functions every time he thought about US Special Forces? A post-Saddam Jordanian-Iraqi Mandate in the West Bank and Gaza? Who knows? But instability is our friend and Israel's friend in a region where the status quo just festers and breeds child-killers.
See Is Jordan Palestine?, an older article by Daniel Pipes and Adam Garfinkle, which shows why the "Jordan is Palestine" idea is not really good for Israel.
Why has that simple,inescapable fact been overlooked for so long? The bottom line is Israel was willing to give the terrorist Arafat autonomy despite continued violence from him and his criminal followers. By grasping at the Roman entity named by Romans 2000 years ago,the people calling themselves Palestinians have attempted to justify their violence toward Jews. Its all about hating the Jews and nothing at all to do with autonomy.If it was about land,why dont the Saudis give them some? The Iranians?
This gets old,Im starting to post the same thing over and over again; Palestine doesnt exist and the only it will is through Israeli indulgence. They have been patient long enough. Now that the Israelis are kicking their ass,after years of speakable barbarism directed at them by these animals,the french,the EU,and plenty of people right here in America are crying foul.Well,tough,you reap what you sow,and terrorism has been sown for so long,the harvest this year is a bleak one.
Either play ball nicely,Mr.Arafat,or get the hell out of Israel.
No it won't. There are lot of Israeli citizens who are Arabs, Christian as well as Muslim, some are even members of the Israeli legislature. They would remain. For you see it's not Arabs, or even Muslims that the Israelies have problems with, it's the one's who send their young to blow themselves up in hope of killing a Jew or three that they have problems with. Israel has alwasy had Arab citizens, with full citizen's rights, (although the Muslims are exempt from the draft, they may join the IDF voluntarily and some do, as well as Druze and Christians) Can the same be said of Jews in Arab/Muslim countires, other than Turkey.
If France, as the leading European diplomatic power takes part in an intervention against the survival of the Israeli state, an Israeli submarine would be perfectly capable of delivering an Israeli nuclear device into the port of Marseilles. If they take your idea seriously, maybe they have already delivered one, or even shipped it to Paris, just in case.
I don't know how he does it. Any of them. They are all heroes in my book. We are living in very dangerous times, and we are just coming off an 8 year vacation from reality.
As for China, there is very little we can do. They are on the ascent. They will be our rival in the coming decades. Neither side wants war now. And so the diplomatic battlefield is important--we must secure the Europeans and win Russia. We must neutralize Pakistan. We must get at least armed neutrality from India. But, imo, Russia is the key to Central Asia, aka the Chinese frontier. In this way, we may hope to contain China until relations are normalized and stabilized 40 or so years from now.
Why should he, he has far better things to do with his time.
How do you figure that? The muslims committed 911, the attack on the USS Cole and the first bombing of the WTC. Allah is the one who commands the infidels to submit to his savage ways or die. There are no Jewish homicide bombers, only muslim. The Jews force no one to convert to their religion. Jews believe in representative government, the muslims believe in religious-fascist dictatorships. Your statement makes no sense, unless you just hate Jews for no logical reason of course.
You are quite uninformed. Maybe that explains your position.
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