Bob Novak-Pentagon Says Iraq Operations Looking to September Start

ABC News Daily Political Tip Sheet 'The Note' VIA Chicago Sun Times ^ | April 25 2002 | Bob Novak

[codebreaker]

Bob Novak makes a United States war with Iraq sound imminent

The signal has spread through the Pentagon: on to Baghdad to get rid of Saddam Hussein, probably in September when the weather should be fine and the United States high tech arsenal will be replentished.

That's what Defense Department policymakers plan, but their cheers are balanced by apprehension among civilian and military career officials.

Some of them are apparently are crossing their fingers for Secretary of State Colin Powell to exert control over the situation. (ugh!-ed.)

[Thud]

"That and other indicators seem to say that it won't be long now."

Check out:

http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=IRAQ.HTM

[eFudd]

probably in September when the weather should be fine and the United States high tech arsenal will be replentished.

Also when we will be heavily engaged in the next election so as to facilitate the sheep following the president when there is a war.

Looks like there will be a Republican Congress.

Too bad there will not be a conservative one.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

"According to some friends of mine at AFI,
they've received the first hints from their sources in Washington that a winter offensive in now being planned."

Guess these people don't understand
Loose Lips Sink Ships
Makes you wonder what their REAL agenda is.

[Brusensky]

From the Debkafiles (an Israeli int. source) Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier – Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Military sources, 24 April, 2002 Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli troop concentrations onits frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.) Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was fast: “A responsible source” at the kingdom’s defense and aviation ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely conducting “routine exercises” in the northwestern region, not beefing up their troop presence there. The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets were flying over Jordan’s border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding craft. DEBKAfile’s military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh’s public admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas. Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes: First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders in order to back up Abdullah’s attempt to railroad Israel as the generator of military escalation in the region. Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince’s American visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home. Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home territory. Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan’s borders – and pin it on Israel – knows exactly what is really going on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite kingdom – which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny – is there with Amman’s consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel countered with a blocking tactic. DEBKAfile’s military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements. The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest – 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah. The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad. The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein’s son, Qusay, will fall back toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman. The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to – whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny – is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault. By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American militaryfacilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar. Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq’s northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey. All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards. Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard on contingency plans. The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign. Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market. Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom. But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets. Already the Saudis are operating on two levels – one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

How about 9/11/02?

sssshhhhhhhhhhhh

[Icthus]

"This is the final call for flights departing from Diego Garcia"

[Grampa Dave]

The Brits are not wussing out. They know that if we are defeated, they are history, too. I think that they will be involved in taking out Lybia (old scores to settle with Krazy Kadfia), Somalia and Syria. That will free us up to take out the garbage in Iran and Iraq. Israel and the Christian Lebanonese will help to cleanse the Islamic scum from Syria.

The Germans will help in Somalia. The Italians will help in Lybia and possibly Syria. The Turks will be all over helping us!

No one will know until it starts. That definitely includes rat/moles like Krystol and Novak. They are so far out of the loop of decision making, they have to read Free Republic to try and see what is happening.

Of course rat/mole Novak may have fallen for the oldest trick in the history of man of how to smoke out a traitor/rat. You give them "special info" that no one else has. If it gets into the media, bingo, you have them! They did this to some well known Rat Senators just as things started to get hot in Afghanistan last year. They exposed themselves as traitors as that so called classified data was all over the liberal media.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

September makes sense from a lot of physical, practical and logistical angles -- and there is also a certain moral symmetry to it as well.

Yes, moral symmetry indeed.

The attack should come in two waves. The first, from the North, launched at 8:54 a.m. and the second from the South, nine minutes later.

[Dan Day]

I guess him and his sources never heard of Loose Lips Sink Ships. But then again I'm sure Novak won't be putting his life on the line so what does he care if his quest for fame endangers our military. Media whores in time of war are a dime a dozen.

[piasa]

Put a CNN talking head in Hitler's lap and it would be perfect.

[uncbob]

I thinks they are hoping that with all this posturing the Iraqi military will remember what an ass whopping they got the last time and will take out Saddam for us

[uncbob]

Hitler had the means to thwart an Allied invasion if he knew where and when it was coming

Ol Saddam knew about the last one and couldn't do diddly about it

This time he already had his buddy Arafat stir up some garbage in Israel.
It ain't worked

The only alternative would be to try to attack Israel on his own
SCUDS AWAY

[Edmund Burke]

Why wouldn't Saddam's smartest move be to seize the Saudi oilfields? Couldn't he do this with a large enough force? U.S. airpower could slow him down, but probably not stop him.

[Dog]

Agree Reg....Sept 11th sounds right.

[SodiumWarthog]

Seizing the the oil fields gains him nothing. What loyal units he does have to execute such a manuver will be lost (chewed up by air-power and cut off). If they succeed, they can set them afire but the damage would be repaired in short order. Besides doing so will make him look like the aggressor.

NaW.
(And he doesn't want to look like a bad-guy, does he?...)

[Dog]

He could do it ....but your forgeting we have forces in Afghanistan...that we could counter this move with.

Saddam wants to be the victim in this fight...he won't launch first....

[texasbluebell]

This rat mole makes Arafatty, the Hilldebeast and our First Black serial rapist look credible.

And guess where Novak has a summer home...in the south of France! Figures.

[ArGee]

Rummy doesn't need an office of dis-information. He's got the U.S. press, which will turn the enemy every-which-way-but-loose with it's infernal attempts to scoop each other.

Shalom.

[tanknetter]

Shorter turnaround time.

More sorties. We don't have as many airframes as we did in `91. We cut quite a bit, and we need to make up for it somehow.


That, and there is only a finite amount of tarmac at Diego. In order to move something else in (like B-2As, for instance - to shorten the turnaround time when compared to flying from Whiteman in MO), something has to go. And the USAF isn't about to base B-2s anywhere in the ME.