Fear and Trembling in the Middle East (Nyquist says situation in the Middle East is critical)

After Vice President Richard Cheney met British Prime Minister Tony Blair on March 12, Blair ordered the manufacture of 16 million doses of smallpox vaccine. Did Cheney warn the British of a possible biological attack?

According to Joseph Curl, writing in the April 16 edition of The Washington Times, Cheney told Blair that the U.S. and Britain are vulnerable to weaponized Iraqi smallpox. Not wasting any time, the British government began to coordinate defensive measures. Health ministers from Germany, the U.S., France, Mexico, Japan and the U.K. met in London on March 14 to swap information on vaccine stocks and bio-terror countermeasures. Three weeks later the British government ordered $46 million worth of smallpox vaccines from PowderJect of Oxford.

The seriousness of the threat can be measured by the quickness of Britain’s response. On April 14 intelligence writer Gordon Thomas published alleged details of what Cheney told Blair about Iraqi biological capabilities. According to Thomas, Cheney said that Iraq was prepared to unleash weaponized smallpox if U.S. or British forces attempted to topple the regime of Saddam Hussein. The CIA estimates that one Iraqi terrorist infected with smallpox, riding the New York subway, could cause “over 15,000 fatalities.” A full-scale attack could kill a million people. According to experts consulted by Thomas, Saddam acquired the capability to manufacture smallpox from Communist China.

Smallpox is an infectious disease with a significant fatality rate. Eradicated over twenty years ago, symptoms include fever, headache and general malaise followed by a rash. The rash typically afflicts the face and limbs, leading to a pustular or vesicular stage. Lesions can be deep and scarring is common.

According to Ken Alibek, a defector from Russia’s biological warfare program, “Smallpox kills between 30 and 50 percent of unvaccinated victims, a low mortality rate,” Alibek explained in his book, “Biohazard.” But death is not the worst that can happen. “Some victims [who survive] are permanently blinded. Others will bear scars as long as they live.

Smallpox is not the only weapon in Saddam Hussein’s arsenal. On April 13 veteran journalist Robert Novak reported that “Saddam Hussein is not only acquiring nuclear weapons but may have the mans of delivering them against the United States (see www.townhall.com/columnists/robertnovak/rn20020413.shtml).

According to Novak, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secretly briefed U.S. senators earlier this month, warning of Iraq’s emerging nuclear capability.

As Iraq attempts to stave off a U.S. assault by threatening the use of biological weapons, neighboring Iran has received an important visitor from China. President Jiang Zemin, while in Tehran, pledged to unite Asia against U.S. global dominance. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami responded by urging China to intervene in the Middle East, especially to stop “crimes” perpetrated by Israel. He also repeated Iran’s demand for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf. In March Iranian Air Force commander, Brig. Gen. Hamid-Reza Pardis bragged that Iran’s air forces are ready to fight any foreign enemy. “We have modern and superior military technology,” said Pardis.

In the wake of Iraq and Iran’s emerging strength, President Bush is not backing down. During a speech last Wednesday at the Virginia Military Institute, Bush signaled his determination to eliminate Saddam Hussein’s regime and confront the “axis of evil.” Hinting at a tough road ahead, Bush spoke of a spring thaw that will enable the terrorist cells to reactivate. The president also mentioned Iraq, Iran and North Korea. “In their threat to peace,” he said, “in their mad ambitions, in their destructive potential and in the repression of their own people, these regimes constitute an axis of evil and the world must confront them."

President Bush is not backing off of Iraq and Iran, though his Saudi allies are crawling away. Popular feeling against Israel and America among the Saudi people has frightened the Saudi princes. The Arabs are angry and the Arabian princes obey the times. The Israeli offensive against the Palestinians has enraged the Arab world. In recent days 113 Saudi intellectuals met at Riyadh to denounce the United States and President Bush. Notables at this meeting included newspaper editors, politicians and academics. Likening Israel to the Nazis, these Saudi opinion makers called on all Arab governments to sever ties to Israel and boycott American imports. In a joint statement, the Saudi intellectuals said, “We consider the United States and the current American administration the nurturer of international terrorism with distinction and it, along with Israel, form the axis of terrorism and evil in the world.”

Last Friday Sheik Abdul Rahman al-Sudais, head cleric of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, said that all Arabs should make war on the Jews, who he described as “the scum of the human race, rats of the world, the killers of prophets and the grandsons of monkeys and pigs.”

Last week it was reported that Prince Abdullah’s planned April 24 meeting with President Bush was put on hold. But now the meeting will go forward despite Abdullah’s decision to close Prince Sultan air base to U.S. forces. No doubt President Bush will try to reverse Abdullah’s decision. But Abdullah is under serious pressure from the angry “Arab street.” He is also being pressured by Iraq, Iran, the Palestinians and Venezuela to declare a 30-day oil embargo against the U.S. and any other country that supports Israel.

Last Thursday Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal went to the Kremlin to see Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. It is likely that Saudi Arabia’s security was discussed. Since the Americans were being forced out of Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan air base, perhaps the Saudis need a new protector. Perhaps they believe that Moscow holds the leash on Iraq and Iran.

The Saudis are frightened by the prospect of war between Iraq and the United States. Such a war could trigger an Islamist revolution against the monarchy. If Saudi Arabia agrees to cooperate with Russia’s new oil policy, perhaps the Russians would agree to become their new protectors. Since Russia has supported both Iran and Iraq, we might be witnessing the beginnings of a new Moscow-brokered alignment in the Gulf.

Another of Iraq’s neighbors is also frightened. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordon is openly preparing for a destructive regional war. Jordan’s capital of Amman has been placed under control of the military. Defenses have been bolstered. Banks, police units, hospitals and utilities are now on an emergency footing. The kingdom’s financial assets, in part, have been relocated to Europe.

DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Military sources:
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier – Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements

24 April: Saudi Arabia denies it has massed 8 brigades on its Jordanian border following secret intelligence reports of Israeli troop concentrations on its frontier with Jordan. (The Kingdom of Jordan is wedged between Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq and Syria.) Israel denied the Saudi claim Tuesday, April 23. The comeback was fast: “A responsible source” at the kingdom’s defense and aviation ministry stated that Saudi armed forces units are merely conducting “routine exercises” in the northwestern region, not beefing up their troop presence there.
The next step in this unfolding exchange of claims and denials was another report from Riyadh on Thursday, April 24, that Israeli jets were flying over Jordan’s border with the oil kingdom. Saudi air defenses were said to be under orders to shoot down any intruding craft.
DEBKAfile’s military analysts have taken due note of Riyadh’s public admission that it fears an Israeli invasion of Jordan. Even more noteworthy is its timing: 48 hours before Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz travels to President George W. Bush’s ranch in Crawford, Texas.
Here, then, is a transparent Saudi gambit, based on the cynical exploitation of the Israeli military bugbear. This gambit, in the view of our analysts, is employed by Riyadh for three purposes:
First, to manufacture tension on the Saudi-Jordanian-Israel borders in order to back up Abdullah’s attempt to railroad Israel as the generator of military escalation in the region.
Second, as a device to cut short the Saudi crown prince’s American visit. Riyadh-Washington relations have never been so bad. (Read earlier DEBKA report on this page: Bush-Abdullah talks: To Paper over Cracks?) Since the Saudi ruler could not wriggle out his American trip, he needed a pretext for an early departure for home.
Third, Saudi rulers have been forewarned of impending Iraqi troop movements focusing on Jordan and are taking military precautions to keep the coming military exchanges from spilling over into home territory.
Riyadh, while attempting to fabricate a crisis around Jordan’s borders – and pin it on Israel – knows exactly what is really going on. The Israeli troop presence along the border of the Hashemite kingdom – which Israeli spokesmen consistently deny – is there with Amman’s consent for the sole purpose of deterring Saddam from invading Jordan. The Saudis are also perfectly aware that Iraq led the way in kicking off this round of military moves and that Israel countered with a blocking tactic.
DEBKAfile ’s military sources provide details of the Iraqi troop movements.
The force Iraq started massing some weeks ago consists of 3-4 of its 7 crack Republican Guard divisions, which are stationed in the center of the country opposite the Jordanian frontier. They are fanned out across a 300-sq.km stretch of land, bounded by four bases: H-3 Main, H-3 Southwest and H-3 Northwest – 350 km. west of Baghdad - and the big al Baghdadi ground and air base west of the town of Rutbah.
The Iraqi high command reckons the first American strike, carried out under the cover of a bombing and missile barrage, will try and capture this area and take over the four bases - much in the way a main US base was set up in Kandahar, Afghanistan. From there US forces will threaten the capital, Baghdad.
The Iraqi response will be to divide their strength into two contingents. One, led by Saddam Hussein’s son, Qusay, will fall back toward Baghdad; the other will push into Jordan and seize its eastern region, ready for an eventual move into the capital, Amman.
The Israeli troop concentration the Saudis are referring to – whose presence Israeli spokesmen deny – is poised to defend Jordan against this very Iraqi assault.
By his pincer movement, Saddam hopes to crush the American force, trapping it in an isolated pocket, vulnerable to a blitz of missiles carrying chemical and biological agents. Simultaneously, Iraqi missile barrages will be aimed at Israel and US military targets in the Jewish state, as well as American militaryfacilities in the Gulf, Kuwait and Qatar.
Iraq is also getting set to counter alternative US tactics. This week, Baghdad deployed heavy reinforcements of anti-air missile batteries in the southern and northern no-fly zones patrolled by US and British allied planes. This move was a preventive measure against a possible US attempt to seize Iraq’s northern and southern oilfields. The batteries are aimed not only against bombers but also large-scale helicopters squadrons flying US and British Marines in from Kuwait, Oman or Turkey.
All these plans are still on American and Iraqi drawing boards. Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli military planners are also working hard on contingency plans.
The Americans therefore have no reason to expect a short campaign. Our military experts estimate the first stage alone will last between one and two months. Saddam will certainly wield oil as a weapon. The Saudis have taken steps to reassure Washington that they have no intention of joining Baghdad in an oil embargo. On Tuesday, April 23, the Saudi oil minister promised a group of American businessmen in Washington that his government would continue to keep oil prices stable and make up for any production shortfall developing on the world market.
Simultaneously, the Saudi investment authority in Riyadh finally, after long delays, approved a partnership transaction between American Chevron-Phillips and the Saudi industrial investment authority, entailing a $1 billion investment in a new petrochemical plant in the kingdom.
But these gestures can no longer paper over the deep rift between Riyadh and Washington, or the inevitability of any major war confrontation driving the two to opposing sides - with lasting effect on the region as well as world oil and financial markets.
Already the Saudis are operating on two levels – one reassuring Washington and other, laying their military cards out on the ground. The second is bound to cancel out the effect of the first.

IRAQ: One Invasion Won't Be Enough

April 24, 2002; One Invasion Won't Be Enough- A recent report in the British press on the US invasion of Iraq said something which is interesting, if true, that planners think only 100,000 troops would be needed. That is an occupation force, not a conquest force. The article also said that the attack is presently planned for the spring of 2003, which is both unbelievable and directly contradicted by the 100,000 troop figure. The latter's implications are (assuming the report is accurate about Pentagon planning):

1) We don't think we'll have to fight. I.e., the national command authority expects Saddam Hussein will be dead when we go in and that our troops in Kuwait will enter Iraq unopposed. This might happen through assassination. Anecdotal evidence in Mark Bowden's article in the current Atlantic Monthly indicates that Saddam's security forces have lost respect for him and are rather cynical about him. Another, darker, possibility is that we expect we or Israel will nuke Iraq into surrender. The latter scenario would require Saddam to launch some SCUD's with chemical warheads at Israel or our forces in Kuwait. I do not see any plausible scenario in which we or Israel would nuke Iraq without Saddam first using weapons of mass destruction.

2) We won't need six months of mobilization to get 100,000 troops and all their supporting stocks, principally aircraft fuel, to the Kuwait area. We could probably do that in 3-4 months.

3) And if we don't plan on forcible conquest, we won't need wartime stocks and could deploy 100,000 occupation duty troops to the Kuwait area in perhaps as little as 45-60 days.

There are astronomical implications to American occupation of Iraq. The intelligence haul will be incredible just from documents and computer files, plus we'll scoop up a lot of people who will tell us everything rather than be put out on the street wearing "I Luv Saddam" t-shirts. Embarrassing information in Iraqi files might be among the reasons certain governments are so opposed to our attacking Iraq.

A lot of the rats will scurry into Syria, though, so it is # 1 or # 2 on our "next" list for that and weapons of mass destruction reasons. The current most likely cause of significant use of those is Hezbollah (Lebanese Shiite group) possession of several hundred primitive nerve gas warheads for their several thousand Katuysha-type artillery rockets aimed at cities in northern Israel. Such an attack would result in a certain mass Israeli nuclear weapons city-busting strike on its present and potential enemies. This would not be in America's interest so defanging Hezbollah has to be high on our priority list. Which means goodbye Syria as it is one of Hezbollah's two major state patrons.

The other is Iran, but I expect the firmly pro-American people of Iran will overthrow their theocratic kleptocracy immediately after we occupy Iraq. Iran's leading mullahs know their regime is threatened and have purportedly decided to "drink poison" a la the late Ayatollah Khomeini's 1989 cease-fire with Iraq, and kiss up to the Great Satan in an attempt to remain in power. It is increasingly unlikely that the U.S. will have to do anything more than occupy and/or conquer Iraq to bring about a regime change in Iran.

These events would be immediately followed by an epidemic of bed wetting on the south side of the Persian Gulf. Once we've secured the oil production of Iraq (which necessarily means our control of Kuwait's) and obtained a friendly regime in Iran, the continued existence of the Saud regime will no longer be in America's interest. The Saud regime is the dominant source of funding for terrorism, especially terrorism against the United States. I expect loss of Saudi funding will cause Islamic terrorism outside Arab areas and Pakistan to tube, and that in Arab areas will be significantly reduced.

The Saudi regime has major problems at home such that we might not be able to keep them in power much longer even if we wanted to (its domestic problems are what drives its funding of terrorism), and it certainly can't stay in power if the U.S. government attempts to bring it down through overt (blockade) or covert means. But as with Iran, we might not have to do anything to terminate the Saud regime.

American-fostered regime changes in Iraq and Iran, alone, could easily cause shaky Saudi domestic politics to spiral out of control, bringing down the monarchy and replacing it with something more radical and anti-American, though there are also liberal and democratic factions. Revolution in Saudi Arabia or its invasion, with an invitation or without one, would likely see a lot of its oil infrastructure destroyed (it purportedly has long been wired for explosives and quick destruction). Then, after the world has done without Saudi oil for a while, the oil fields (which comprise only a small part of Arabian real estate) would be rebuilt and revived under U.S. government control.

At which point we'll also know which other oil-producing countries are still funding terrorism (the likely suspects are Libya, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates). This is pretty scary stuff, but once we invade Iraq there is a major possibility of snowball effects, which include incentives to continue invading. Hopefully the Bush administration has a desired end state in mind. And things could start rolling this summer - Tom Holsinger

April 22, 2002; The US reported that Iraq has moved more anti-aircraft missiles into the no-fly zones.

Thanks for the ping. Truely insane people in the world but I am sure there is a martyr or two willing to go the extra mile and pull off a small pox attack. This is why racal profiling must begin today.

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THIS DOES SAY IT ALL!!!

After hearing that the state of Florida changed its opinion and let a Muslim woman have her picture on her drivers license with her face covered, I believe this is even more appropriate. Read on, please!

This is an Editorial written by an American citizen, published in a Tampa Newspaper. He did quite a job; didn't he?

IMMIGRANTS, NOT AMERICANS, MUST ADAPT. I am tired of this nation worrying about whether we are offending some individual or their culture. Since the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, we have experienced a surge in patriotism by the majority of Americans. However, the dust from the attacks had barely settled when the "politically correct" crowd began complaining about the possibility that our patriotism was offending others.

I am not against immigration, nor do I hold a grudge against anyone who is seeking a better life by coming to America. Our population is almost entirely comprised of descendants of immigrants. However, there are a few things that those who have recently come to our country, and apparently some born here, need to understand. This idea of America being a multicultural community has served only to dilute our sovereignty and our national identity.

As Americans, we have our own culture, our own society, our own language and our own lifestyle. This culture has been developed over centuries of struggles, trials, and victories by millions of men and women who have sought freedom. We speak ENGLISH, not Spanish, Arabic, Chinese, Japanese, Russian, or any other language. Therefore, if you wish to become part of our society, learn the language!

"In God We Trust" is our national motto. This is not some Christian, right wing, political slogan. We adopted this motto because Christian men and women, on Christian principles, founded this nation, and this is clearly documented. It is certainly appropriate to display it on the walls of our schools. If God offends you, then I suggest you consider another part of the world as your new home, because God is part of our culture. If Stars and Stripes offend you, or you don't like Uncle Sam, then you should seriously consider a move to another part of this planet. We are happy with our culture and have no desire to change, and we really don't care how you did things where you came from. This is OUR COUNTRY, our land, and our lifestyle. Our First Amendment gives every citizen the right to express his opinion and we will allow you every opportunity to do so. But, once you are done complaining, whining, and griping about our flag, our pledge, our national motto, or our way of life, I highly encourage you to take advantage of one other great American freedom, THE RIGHT TO LEAVE.

Despite the vitiating skepticism on the other thread, I think that Debka is fundamentally accurate in saying that Iraq has 3 to 4 divisions in, or west of, al-Rutbah and thus in its western "arm" leading to Jordan.

If it can be true that these are all packed into just 300 SQ KM, imagine it! That is a box only about 10 miles square on each side.

With one nuke, or with just a little conventional bombing, those could all be taken out right now!

It is not to be denied that Israeli troops have heavily reinforced the Jordan border, possibly J i C they need to cross it, and it is also not to be denied that Jordan is totally mobilized and militarized.

It is also not to be denied that a handful (a thousand or two?) Saudi troops are on the very borders of Jordan near Aqaba, and again of Iraq near Rutbah, and again near where SA, Iraq, and Jordan meet. These may just be "canaries in the coal mine" to make sure no intrusion whatever can occur across the SA borders in case anything happens...it is not enough force to actually PREVENT BY FORCE such crossing, or to with any material effect join the fighting north of said borders...

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DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Military sources:Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier – Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements

IRAQ: One Invasion Won't Be Enough

DEBKAfile’s Exclusive Military sources:
Saudi Brigades Massed on Jordanian Frontier – Response to Iraqi, Israeli Movements