How? The NEA is not a taxing authority.
The local schools will start to say their budget no longer covers expences. They need a vote to raise taxes, or the school will have "no choice" but to cut back on activities, art, gym, and everything else the children love. If we disobey, they will take it from the children, and it will be "the parents fault" for not approving the increase that "was so badly needed."
I agree that this is what would probably happen.
But, this scenario may(just maybe) be what needs to happen to get public schools back in line. If the NEA is forced to pay back money that it admittedly illegally used, and then school boards across the country start rasing taxes to cover these fines/pay backs, you are going to have millions of very unhappy people. You will have millions of people unwilling to pay higher taxes simply because the NEA decided to use its dues for political payoffs rather than what it was supposed to be used for. I would look for many court challenges concerning NEA instructing local school boards to try to raise taxes.
This could get really interesting.
These local schools are not the NEA. What direct link is there between the NEA's budget shortfall (if any) from a loss of their exemption status and the school's desire to raise taxes? Further, how will that happen in places like Texas where the NEA has no support?