[jadimov]

...I disagree about past trends being nothing more indicators. Economics is not as random as many believe. In essence, given a country's land size, population size, and other resources, every country has a certain maximum potential GDP size called the "production possibilities frontier." You wouldn't generally expect a country with just a 5 million population to have as large a GDP over time as a country with 100 million population. And, if anything, China today is following the one-party path of development that E. Asian tiger economies took earlier, so it's reasonable to assume that just as the tigers developed their economies very rapidly, China will do more or less the same. China's economic growth over the past 20 years has actually surpassed those of the tigers...

I agree as far as the economy is concerned. However, other factors must be taken into consideration. The government will affect the growth rate as it chooses to relax or restrict its control on the economy. And as it relaxes or restricts its control on the middle class. China also has to contend with 55 official minority nationalities totaling 91,200,314 and 201 languages. In addition religion has largely been repressed.

People's Republic of China. Zhonghua Renmin Gongheguo. National or official language: Mandarin Chinese. 1,262,358,000 (1998 UN). 55 official minority nationalities total 91,200,314 or 6.5% of the population (1990). Han Chinese 1,033,057,000 or 93.5% (J. Matisoff). Also includes Central Khmer 1,000, Portuguese 2,000, Shan, Tai Dam 10,000, Tai Don 10,000. Information mainly from J. Dreyer 1976; S. Wurm et al. 1987; J-O Svantesson 1989, 1995; J. Janhumen 1989; J. Matisoff et al. 1996; J. Evans 1999. Secular, Chinese traditional religion, Buddhism, Taoism, Christian, Muslim, traditional religion. Blind population 2,000,000. Deaf population 3,000,000 (1986 Gallaudet University). Deaf institutions: 7. Data accuracy estimate: B. The number of languages listed for China is 202. Of those, 201 are living languages and 1 is extinct. Diversity index 0.48.
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