Posted on 04/21/2002 1:36:42 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
If my numbers are wrong... then what should they be?
check out the comments also...
My point was that Republics are born in violence and grow in fits and starts. Those military dictatorships are a good example. I've been researching after my talks from other threads. I can't find a peaceful transition to democracy. I'm looking at Canada now.
...Localization and separatism surely are opposing forces to globalization, but I think in the end globalization will win out because ultimately capitalism can't be stopped...
Personally I think the globalization will stop short of one world government. It will most likely be regional governments with a unified world economic market. Nations will either be independent states within the regions or semi-autonomous territories within a state, like Nunavut in Canada.
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China has issued 511 billion yuan in special treasury bonds over the past four years which have added between 1.5 and two percentage points to economic growth in each of those four years.
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The real question is, the other %... whatever it really was... where did the funds for that come from?
Let me tell you...
a) CCP industries who profit from trade or whatever...the collective is the money pot for building cel phone infrastructures and internet backbones... b) tax revenues...
The purchasing of big ticket tech items, whether they are cel phone infrastructures by Motorola, or internet whatever.... are built in this way...
Everyone conceded that this is going to happen already...
Motorola got up to about 15% of its revenues from China at one point...
But after saturation occurs, then what?
The cel 'boom' in China is trailing off... or will be within the next few years...
Hence the start of the internet backbone era...
1) Do you know of any information on U.S. % of world GDP both in terms of PPP and Exchange rates. I would love more info. on this, web links or even a book.
2) Even better yet, do you have any info. on the HISTORY of U.S. % of world GDP in terms of PPP and exchange rates?
3) Which is more relevant, PPP or exchange rates?
If China holds together, it will be a threat to the US in the sense that the US will no longer be the sole power in the West Pacific. China will not be able to take the place of the US as a global power. That is determined by geography. The US is protected by two oceans and two weak semi-friendly countries on its borders. The US is a sea power and by extension, an air power. Examples of this are Great Britain and to some extent Spain.
China on the other hand is a land power. It must protect the local seas but also contend with a long land border with large hostile peoples. It has had many small wars and skirmishes with India and Russia and must be wary of the Turks in central Asia. This requires China to maintain a large army and diverts attention and resources. Other examples of this are France and Germany.
Geography. The United States is blessed in position and resources. If China grows in the West Pacific, we can survive. The US can shift focus to the Americas and Africa. Those areas still have much potential for growth.
A unified market can be a good thing and a bad thing. The unification of Europe is producing a common market for US goods but I think it is more of a benefit to Europe than the US. The Europeans are starting to flex their muscles and their main target appears to be the US. I believe they will attmept to shape us into their socialist image just as we have long tried to shape the world to ours. European corporations will also have enough muscle to beat US corporations all over the world. It is already happenning in East Europe.
I don't consider it a peaceful transition yet. There still have a great potential to drop into civil war and dictatorship. It happenned to England, Spain, France, Italy, and the US before they finally settled.
Let me start with this:
First get the facts, then you can distort 'em as much as you want
--Mark Twain
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics
--Benjamin Disraeli
If you ask two economists the same question, you're bound to get at least three different answers.
3) Which figure is more relevant depends on what you are looking at and what your goal is. No matter what you do, all you will have is a rough guess. A $10,000 salary in Hannibal Missouri and New York City are two different animals because of purchasing power, hence the index. When you throw in exchange rates, you are in for a headache. You can just use the raw number or go for formulas that determine the effect of policies on the currency. Just be clear which numbers you are using when you present. You can see what happenned in this thread because I was using one method and bushrocks was using another. Confusion.
2) For historical numbers I start with my annual Britannica set, an almanac, and an atlas. From there I go to the internet and cross check my facts as much as possible.
1) According to Britannica, the US GNP for 1999 was 8,879,500,000,000 out of 29,278,809,000,000 or 30.33%
I use Google.com for the vast majority of my searches. Try many many different combinations of key words.
Here is the official government site http://www.bea.gov/
I found this http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/gdplev.xls
And this http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/45/016.html
Most of the 'income' to the US firms is from the PRC rather than the citizens. Businesses are chomping at the bit to sell their stuff to the Chinese when in reallity, they are sill not selling anything to them. They are, however, helping the PRC to obtain high technology, dual-use tech, and a nice deficit:
China sees record 2002 budget deficit
Honestly, I don't believe the Chinese economy will implode within the next few years. However, it is not as stable as most people think. The reason observers are concerned about an economic implosion is they fear the reaction of the CCP/PRC. The CCP has consistently used nationalism (ie the world hates us so the CCP is the only thing keeping you citizens safe) to maintain control. If the CCP has to use a war (such as we are under attack by X country, therefore unrest must stop and all citizens are called to defend the motherland) to keep folks in line it may well do so. See the article below for some background.
China's Hunger: The Consequences of a Rising Demand for Food and Energy: If order broke down, the Chinese would not be the only people to suffer. Civil unrest in the PRC would disrupt trade relationships, send refugees flowing across borders, and force outside powers to consider intervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different sides, China's struggle could lead to major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario, China's government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.
Finally, I know many countries have used low-wage jobs but have you ever heard of a laogai? If not, you might want to do some research on them.
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