Posted on 04/18/2002 10:12:10 PM PDT by Tumbleweed_Connection
The Venezuelan media are being castigated for alleged bias and possible support of the ouster of President Hugo Chavez. This issue and a possible media crackdown will be a litmus test for Chavez's political power and his willingness to fly in the face of international opinion.
Though still weak, Chavez well may emerge politically strengthened and more resistant to international pressure.
Chavez's allies within the National Assembly plan to investigate allegations that country's major media outlets, especially Caracas-based television stations, helped to foment the protests that led to a failed coup April 12 and 13. Chavez always has been critical of the media and will seek ways to control the press.
Attempts to crack down on the media will test domestic support for Chavez as well as his willingness to fly in the face of international criticism – two issues that lie at the core of Venezuela's future. The failed coup attempt has, on balance, strengthened Chavez politically within Venezuela – though not nearly to the heights of 2000 – while weakening his opposition.
And though Chavez, with the eyes of the international community focused upon him, is making "conciliatory" statements to his foes, he may be even more emboldened to ignore international pressure to protect human rights and democracy for the sake of his own political survival.
While the sustainability of the Chavez administration remains in serious doubt, the president is in a position to further consolidate his power – which may include cracking down on the media. And there may be little that the international community can do about it.
As TV stations broadcast coverage of large anti-Chavez demonstrations April 9-11, the administration broke in with mandatory government broadcasts of its own so-called "cadenas," including long presidential speeches. Some stations responded by showing a split screen with Chavez on one side and demonstrators on the other, the Wall Street Journal reports. This battle for airtime culminated on the afternoon of April 11, when Chavez had the station's broadcasting signals shut down.
The media and Chavez have long been at war, with the president accusing journalists of lying to the people and with even some media executives – such as El Nacional publisher Miguel Otero – admitting that the industry was opposed to Chavez. The battle now is coming to a head over the media's role in Chavez's brief ouster. Journalists have been accused of everything from support and encouragement for the coup to outright participation in it. Chavez has floated the idea of a conspiracy of elites that includes the hostile media.
Now more than ever, Chavez would like to establish control over the media. Doing so will require two things, however. First, he must have adequate political power to force through legislation or decrees that give him more control over the press. Second, he must be willing and able to withstand the international criticism against such a move.
Chavez once enjoyed enormous popularity, and the coup debacle offers him a real opportunity to regain political strength. Solid popular support in the high 50 percent range from 1998 to 2000 dropped to less than 30 percent in early 2002, according to an independent Datanalisis poll. However, that loss of support never translated into gains by any other figure or group.
Before the coup attempt, this lack of cohesion and leadership among the opposition helped Chavez to remain in power. That has not changed and now may be an even greater advantage for Chavez. The disparate opposition groups – including business elites, labor and clergy – were unable to hold together for even 48 hours. Though these forces remain opposed to the current regime, they lost both momentum and legitimacy in the failed coup.
Moreover, an ugly side to the opposition was exposed when it was co-opted by ultra-conservative forces that moved to oust the National Assembly and the Supreme Court, sought to abolish almost all the populist decrees of Chavez's "Bolivarian Revolution," and tried to protect their own business interests. By comparison, Chavez didn't look so bad after all.
Chavez will build on that negative perception by blaming business and media elites for launching a conspiracy against him and the Venezuelan people. Though there are no polls yet to substantiate it, that message should allow Chavez to regain lost ground, especially among the 80 percent of Venezuelans living in poverty.
That would translate into renewed support in the unicameral legislature, the National Assembly, which Chavez himself established and managed to stack with his own supporters – through constitutional reforms. Chavez's party, the Movement for the Fifth Republic, won 91 of the 165 seats in July 2000 elections. Even though Chavez has lost the support of a portion of his own party, he will work to bring many of these discontented legislators back into the fold. If he survives long and manages to gain more popularity, he should be able to regain much of their support.
If he is moderately successful in that, Chavez likely would use a congressional report detailing media involvement in the coup as a tool to enact new media restrictions. This would result in sharp and immediate international criticism, but Chavez may not care.
Chavez historically has showed little regard for international opinion, regularly antagonizing the United States and hobnobbing with international pariahs such as Iraq, Iran, Libya and Cuba. He also recognizes that his return to power has put U.S. policymakers in a tough spot, especially given the U.S. dependence on Venezuelan oil. Most other governments denounced his ouster and praised his return, and Chavez may feel they are now on his side.
If international pressure is brought to bear, Chavez has a few tools to deflect the criticism. He could use a legislative report critical of the media to turn the tables on the human rights issue, claiming media bias is the real violation of human rights and necessitates intervention. He also could resurrect claims that foreign governments – in particular the United States and Colombia – supported his ouster and should therefore stay out of his domestic affairs. But his biggest tool is oil: As much as foreign governments may denounce press restrictions, the United States will not allow any sanctions that restrict oil exports. Apart from that, however, there is little the foreign community can really do to hurt Venezuela.
Though Chavez currently is saying all the right things about human rights and democracy for international consumption, he will put his own political survival first when push comes to shove – especially if there is nobody to stop him.
When he feels the heat he whines and shouts and then he whines and apologies and then begins his activities again. He says one thing to Venezuelans and the world while he's dismantling their legitimate government and installing his dictatorship. He says he wants to be their friend and they should all love each other while, at the same time. he's arming thugs and sending them out to attack dissent. He needs to go.
Here is my "library" on Hugo. Hugo Chavez - Venezuela The media can't help what he is and they won't be his advocate. That's why he's mad. He called the Church a cancer because they won't support his "peaceful" Bolivarian revolution. The cancer is Hugo Chavez, Castro II.
****February 2002 - Now his adversaries include the business community, labor unions, the middle class, neighboring countries -- and the church. The opposition has taken to calling him 'El Chalibán,'' a play on the word Taliban. The snowballing size of the opposition has led to increasing social and political tension. In December, an unlikely alliance -- business and labor -- conducted a one-day strike to protest Chávez' laws. A month later, a massive march took place in the streets; Chávez had the government TV station broadcast a Catholic Mass instead…. ``It's not just the middle class, it's every class. We would rather have someone else, but there are no other options. What we can't do is expect anyone to be our savior -- that's what happened when we voted for Chávez.'' ***
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