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In response to the Passover Massacre, the IDF has invaded city after city, capturing terrorists, confiscating large caches of weapons and explosives, and destroying terrorist infrastructures. Prime Minister Sharon could wait no longer and went ahead and did Arafat's job for him.
Initially, President Bush sided with Israel saying that the Israeli government had a right to defend its people. But as time wore on, something changed, and President Bush publicly and gently began demanding that the IDF pull out immediately. And people began to speculate a rift was forming between the two leaders.
Let's begin with some basics. President Bush understands terror, Arafat's Islamic lust to destroy Israel and kill every Jew, and that an IDF pullout will result in more terrorism and more Israeli citizens being killed. President Bush is not one to ask Prime Minister Sharon to stand down while Israelis die, but apparently a compelling exception exists.
Analysts say that the Mubarak regime is under intense pressure to act militarily against Israel by its radical elements and may not survive the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. Milad Hanna sums up the present situation by saying, "But the wave is breaking and, in the end, President Bush won't be able to protect Mubarak"; when Mubarak falls, "President Bush will be shaken," knowing that the House of Saud will fall in its wake. One young Egyptian explained that they will fight Israel with or without their government.
The peasants are in a frenzy.
Pro-western alliances and a lack of military backing for the Palestinians by these governments appear to be the key factors for these uprising. In other words, the regimes in Saudi Arabia and Egypt both wish to live in peace with non-Muslim states, but their people don't. The younger Muslims were raised to hate Israel and are now confused as to why their governments don't do anything to stop Israel from attacking their Arab brothers in the West Bank.
With the fall of the World Trade Towers came dancing and celebrations through out Saudi Arabia. King Faud wasted no time in seeking exile for fear that his pro-western alliances made him a target of his own people. The House of Saud has been under ever increasing pressure and even violence from demonstrators since September 11th. With the clerics in charge of Saudi Arabia's education and religion, it is inevitable that the clerics will use the Saudi populous to overthrow the House of Saud in their quest to rule the peninsula. The question is not if, but when?
American foreign policy is the greatest benefactor of America's reliance on Saudi oil. This economic trade serves the greater role of giving America vast influence in the region and fending off the rise of Islamic fundamentalism by propping up of the moderate Saudi regime with American dollars. When America stops buying Saudi oil, the Arabian Peninsula begins its evolution into another Iran. And with it, the dominance America has enjoyed all of these years will disappear.
In Mubarak's case, perhaps he is already at the end of the game and sees only an exit strategy left to play out. Some suggest a change is overdue. A teetering Mubarak regime certainly explains reports of Israeli embassy families returning home from Cairo just a few days ago.
Reports suggest that Baghdad, Tehran, and Damascus will strike sooner rather than later against Israel to stir tensions and bring the moderates to an end. They go on to describe a war scenario this month, with an Iranian military exercise beginning next week that will end in a full naval blockade of the Straits or Hormuz and Iraqi missile attacks upon Israel. OPEC's rebuff of Iran's call to embargo America a few days back has laid the seeds for the Iranian navy imposing an embargo on OPEC by force. Such a move by the Iranian navy will be met with U.S. naval forces in the extreme, but by then it may be too late. The House of Saud may already have fallen by the time the shipping lanes reopen, and then a blockade will not be necessary. The spigots will be shut off at the source by the fundamentalists that rise up to replace the moderates.
Iraq is said to be readying to strike Israel so as to stir the waters that will accelerate the toppling of the moderates. This would give cause for immediate American action. But the moderates appear very fragile and it may be the assessment of the Bush Administration that they will fall in the wake of any American action in the Persian Gulf. There appears to be no stopping the inevitable. The moderates will fall and war will come. President Bush will have greater difficulty in justifying action in the Middle East if there are no other allies asking for our support besides Israel. And the presence of America will not be welcomed by any Arab states.
No doubt it would help President Bush's effort in bringing about a Middle East according to Bush if moderates continued to reign in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But would it help the world if President Bush keeps terror hidden behind the façade of the Saudi government? Or would the world best be served by facing terror head on (as President Bush advocated before Congress), eliminating all trade with them, allowing the fundamentalist to rise up and show themselves for who they really are, and then destroying them in war ala-Afghanistan? After all, the Muslim populations of these states are doing exactly as President Bush demanded- they are choosing sides in the war against terror, howbeit a poor choice at that.
There is a saying, What you compromise to keep you will eventually lose. History bears this principle out with the Oslo Accords. Israel's willingness to compromise God's promise of Jewish ownership of the West Bank in exchange for the mere hope of peace in their lifetime has ensured that the hope of peace among Israelis is lost on this generation. One could easily predict that President Bush's compromising his fight against terrorists within Saudi Arabia in exchange to keep his influence upon the region will ensure an inevitable loss of American dominance in the region, and a far worse aftermath when the House of Saud finally comes crumbling down.
If it is time for the House of Saud to fall, then let it fall.
Fundamentalist Islam rising in Arab states will be met with fundamentalist Judaism rising in Israel. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and some of the newer figures in his sphere of influence are so sold out on the premise that the West Bank belongs to the Jews by divine promise that the West Bank will remain non-negotiable while they remain in power. And Arafat has done nothing but ensure that they remain in power for quite some time.
In fact, it would not be surprising to see Israel annex all of the West Bank as a result of Operation Defensive Shield. It is a physical impossibility for the IDF to determine which Palestinians are suicide bombers and which are innocent civilians. This is true with women also, now that women are filling the ranks of suicide bombers. Deportation of all Palestinians to remote points far from Israeli cities emulating the Indian-Pakistani separation is the only solution left to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And some of the new right wing hard liners advocate such action if and when the opportunity presents itself. And it may be presenting itself very soon if they have their way.
The epicenter of this rift between Prime Minister Sharon and President Bush is in the IDF's action in the West Bank. But below this epicenter is a very real and hidden danger posed to moderate Arab regimes, and along with them America's dominance in the Middle East. The evolution of the Middle East is unavoidable. America must simply ride out the quakes forecast months ago by Arab leaders.
In the end, President Bush is a man of God who will side with Israel, for his faith in The Lord Jesus Christ will not allow him to stand opposed to Prime Minister Sharon. This entire episode would appear on the surface to be nothing more than a moment of panic for the Bush Administration as they watch American dominance in the Middle East slip out of their hands. Level heads will regain control, and the war on terror will continue. And all rhetoric aside, the facts on the ground continue to demonstrate absolute support of Prime Minister Sharon's actions by the Bush Administration.