I don't know that I'd be so pessimistic. It sounds like Carmona dropped the ball, as right-wing banana republicans are wont to do. He was smart enough to know that he couldn't hold the country except with an iron fist, so he wrung some concessions from Chavez and handed him back the keys.
The test will come if Chavez returns to his unpopular socialistic policies. And he's up for re-election in 2006 anyway. While not a boon for democracy, this isn't the disaster it could be.
As long as Chavez sticks with the "no retaliation, no witchhunt", you're probably right.