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Pressure Chavez to obey the law (Calling on Jimmy Carter's "enormous moral weight")***The matter is simple: The opposition needed 2.4 million signatures to petition a referendum that would revoke the president's mandate. It collected one million extra. If that referendum were held today, two-thirds of all Venezuelans would vote against Chávez, and the colonel, who has turned out to be the worst president in the history of that country, would inexorably be defeated. But since Chávez is not willing to permit such a thing, he is resorting to all kinds of tricks and embracing every loophole to keep from obeying the law. At the same time, advised by the Cuban intelligence services, he lines up his supporters, civilian and military, for the self-inflicted coup that will end all freedoms and the fragile democratic institutions that still remain.

The barracks coup he has planned has few original elements. To start, the official propaganda apparatus would accuse the opposition of concocting plots to overthrow the government in cahoots with the American Embassy, those perfidious, oil-thirsty Yankees. Immediately thereafter, all constitutional guarantees would be suspended, and martial law and curfews would be imposed.

At once, in the name of the fatherland and the defense of its oil interests, the troops and militias loyal to Chávez, directed from the shadows by Cuban officers and commissars, would seize Parliament, ports and airports, banks, means of communication -- especially telephones, newspapers and television stations -- and would arrest their owners and round up the principal leaders of the opposition, the industry and labor unions, which number about 2,000.

Simultaneously, Chávez's forces would encourage the looting of commercial establishments to terrorize the whole of society. Thus, the images of the events seen worldwide will depict widespread public disorder, with undertones of a class struggle, that Hugo Chávez, responsibly, is trying to put down.

Why has Chávez not put into action his sinister project? Because he's not sure that he has the necessary forces. Every time he takes a genuine inventory of his probable defenders, he finds he can count unconditionally with only about 4,800 Cuban ''special troops'' strategically situated in various command posts, plus about 12,000

Venezuelan soldiers dispersed throughout various units under the command of a few dozen officers who are totally loyal to the president. To them, one could add 25,000 chavista militiamen, hurriedly armed during the first 48 hours of the conflict.

Therein lie Chávez's fears: What will probably happen -- if the military coup is launched -- is that the armed forces will split and the coup will trigger a civil war of uncertain results that could put an end to his government and even his life.

But his plans move ahead, and that bloody outcome could be prevented only by the vigorous action of the international forces, especially the two people who may have the fate of Venezuelans in their hands: César Gaviria and Jimmy Carter.***

President Bush Tightens Rules on Travel to Cuba*** The State Department's recently canceled talks on migration issues, which normally are held every six months. U.S. officials said Cuba has not been cooperating in achieving the goal of safe, orderly and legal immigration.

The Bush administration has accused Cuba of meddling in Latin America, sometimes in collaboration with the country's main South American ally, Venezuela.

The tightening of Cuban restrictions came on the same day that Bush rescinded a travel ban on Libya. The United States moved toward better relations with Tripoli in December after Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi renounced terrorism and development of weapons of mass destruction.***