Although Mr. Santos does not represent the Colombian government and Colombian officials tried to stay out of the fray, his words risked further deterioration of the already strained relationship between the two nations.
Bad blood between these countries, sharing a 2000-kilometer border, is legendary. But things have gotten decidedly worse since Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made it clear that he believes in promoting Fidel Castro's armed struggle on the South American continent and that he sympathizes with Colombian guerrillas. The MiG issue could take relations to a new low.
The problem for Colombia is not simply a question of Venezuelan air superiority. The purchase could put pressure on Bogotá to engage in an arms race when the country has more immediate and destabilizing threat: the internal guerrilla conflict. Moreover, Colombian alarm at the prospect of Venezuelan MiGs must be considered in light of a steady stream of reports that Venezuela has been accommodating the Colombian rebels.
A little short on diplomatic skills, the Venezuelan ambassador to Colombia, Carlos Rodolfo Santiago, immediately answered Mr. Santos's assertion by calling him a "cynical and irresponsible liar." He also reportedly denied the existence of the letter that the former Colombian official had cited as proof of his assertion. "The only thing that has happened is that during a visit of Russians to Caracas, it was asked how much that could be worth," he said. "But that is not to say that there was a tender offer or something similar." Venezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton accused Mr. Santos of links to coup-plotters.
As to the letter, Mr. Santos seems to have been on solid ground. Colombian security analyst Alfredo Rangel Suárez tells me he has seen the text and in a column last week in Colombia's El Tiempo, he described its contents. Contrary to Mr. Santiago's claims, it was not a casual inquiry.
"The request from Venezuela to the Russian factory is very specific: Fifty combat aircraft, with multifunctional Zhuk-M liquid crystal 6X8 inch radar, with navigation and weapons control systems that insure the use of six types of air-to-air missiles, three classes of guided air-to-surface missiles, in addition to bombs and 30 caliber guns," wrote Mr. Rangel Suárez. "Additionally, it asks that ten of the planes be delivered within 18 months of the contract signing and also that it include a tailor-made maintenance center for MiGs in Venezuela." The letter was sent to the director general of Russian MiG Aeronautic Corporation, Nicolai Nikitin and signed by Venezuelan Air Force commander Régulo Anselmi, according to an El Tiempo report.
Mr. Chavez cashiered Mr. Anselmi not long after April 11, 2002, which means that the letter is more than one year old and the Venezuelan ambassador to the U.S. says that the only orders pending are for four Russian-made reconnaissance helicopters. It's thus uncertain whether the idea of buying MiGs remains alive.
Venezuelan sources differ on the question, with some sure that there is no budget for such extravagance and at least one reporting that the signs suggest a Russian deal is in the works. But Mr. Rangel Suárez tells me that he has verified that the Venezuelan order to the Russian factory "was made official by foreign minister Chaderton some two months ago in a visit to Moscow. The contract would be signed next year and initially they would deliver two flotillas of eight planes each. Later they would make delivery of the remaining planes that were ordered."
Why Venezuela might want so many high performance fighter planes remains a question. Its unlikely that even the cocky Mr. Chavez is misguided enough to think he can mix it up with the U.S. Air Force.
…………………… This is not surprising given the fact that the Venezuelan military has been gutted of its professional staff and turned into an armed brigade, infused with Cuban consultants and a heavy dose of militia, and is now dedicated solely to enforcing the Bolivarian Revolution.
Add to this Castroite agenda Mr. Chavez's personal political ambitions, the fact that the economy is a basket case and that his popularity hovers at only 30%, and its not hard to envision him picking a fight with a historical nemesis to stir up nationalism. ***
Hardline opponents, backed by fiercely anti-Chavez private media, shrilly proclaim that the Cuban doctors are political commissars of Cuban President Fidel Castro doling out Marxism-Leninism along with medicine. "They aren't doctors; they're professional political activists," said Douglas Leon Natera, president of Venezuela's Medical Federation. He argues the Cubans are working in Venezuela illegally and stealing the jobs of local doctors. ***