From Mexico and Brazil's perspective, it makes sense for Latin America's two largest economies to align more closely in pursuit of shared economic priorities, as in seeking to dismantle U.S., European and Asian agricultural trade barriers. However, Fox's decision to align Mexico with Brazil also reflects his deep frustration for what he perceives as the Bush administration's indifference to his efforts to secure an immigration agreement for Mexican nationals working in the United States.
Fox defined such an agreement at the outset of his government as his foreign policy priority -- the legacy of his presidency. However, more than two years of lobbying have not budged the issue in Washington, especially since Sept. 11. As a result, by aligning Mexico with Brazil, Fox is seeking to rebuild his own battered image inside Mexico, where many critics think he flirted too much with Washington and got nothing in return.
Meanwhile, Fox is playing catch-up with da Silva who, since assuming the presidency less than six months ago, has floated several major initiatives. These include relaunching the South America's Mercosur customs union, negotiating strategic alliances with the Argentine and Venezuelan governments and giving each of those governments $1 billion in credit to finance exports through the state-owned National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES).
Fox's alignment with da Silva in fact could improve U.S.- Brazilian relations, since Mexico would be in a position to bring Brasilia and Washington closer on regional trade-related issues that also interest Mexican investors and exporters. However, a tight alignment on issues that concern Brasilia -- such as Colombia and Cuba -- could bring Mexico into diplomatic conflict with the United States.
The escalating Colombian conflict and its potential impact on the Brazilian Amazon region might worry da Silva. However, he is even more concerned about U.S. military aid flowing into Colombia, and sees the aid as the potential precursor to an expanding U.S. military presence in the Andean region. Like many Brazilians, da Silva and his foreign policy advisers view such a possibility as a threat to their country's territorial integrity along its largely unguarded western borders, where the Andes mountain range starts to rise out of the Amazon rain forest.***