The barracks coup he has planned has few original elements. To start, the official propaganda apparatus would accuse the opposition of concocting plots to overthrow the government in cahoots with the American Embassy, those perfidious, oil-thirsty Yankees. Immediately thereafter, all constitutional guarantees would be suspended, and martial law and curfews would be imposed.
At once, in the name of the fatherland and the defense of its oil interests, the troops and militias loyal to Chávez, directed from the shadows by Cuban officers and commissars, would seize Parliament, ports and airports, banks, means of communication -- especially telephones, newspapers and television stations -- and would arrest their owners and round up the principal leaders of the opposition, the industry and labor unions, which number about 2,000.
Simultaneously, Chávez's forces would encourage the looting of commercial establishments to terrorize the whole of society. Thus, the images of the events seen worldwide will depict widespread public disorder, with undertones of a class struggle, that Hugo Chávez, responsibly, is trying to put down.
Why has Chávez not put into action his sinister project? Because he's not sure that he has the necessary forces. Every time he takes a genuine inventory of his probable defenders, he finds he can count unconditionally with only about 4,800 Cuban ''special troops'' strategically situated in various command posts, plus about 12,000
Venezuelan soldiers dispersed throughout various units under the command of a few dozen officers who are totally loyal to the president. To them, one could add 25,000 chavista militiamen, hurriedly armed during the first 48 hours of the conflict.
Therein lie Chávez's fears: What will probably happen -- if the military coup is launched -- is that the armed forces will split and the coup will trigger a civil war of uncertain results that could put an end to his government and even his life.
But his plans move ahead, and that bloody outcome could be prevented only by the vigorous action of the international forces, especially the two people who may have the fate of Venezuelans in their hands: César Gaviria and Jimmy Carter.***
CNE member Jorge Rodríguez said he had ''no problem'' with studying the suggestion.
''The OAS and The Carter Center consider the concern legitimate in that it is necessary to determine whether one person signed for another, clearly violating the rules,'' the organizations wrote in a statement.
Diplomats here say OAS representatives, upset over perceived government stonewalling, are close to declaring the referendum hopeless.
Such a move would be a black eye to the government, which had promised to permit the recall referendum without excessive red tape.
The statement signed by both groups said they are committed to staying to the end.
Vice President José Vicente Rangel urged the organizations to speak out against opposition groups that he alleged are planning a ''coup against the constitution'' by not recognizing the CNE.
''The CNE has not expressed its will to invalidate every signature,'' Rodríguez said. ``But nor are we going to bow to blackmail and validate every signature just because.'' ***