Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
According to the neighborhood watch committee--which draws its support from mostly from students and local residents--anti-government demonstration organizers will attempt to divert the march to the Miraflores Presidential Palace and confront pro-government supporters already gathered outside the Palace gates. The group calls on foriegn media to send their own reporters and not to rely on Venezuela's opposition-led mainstream media for news reports and images. [End]
After his return to power in April, Chavez promised dialogue with political foes and reformed his cabinet to help deflect criticism he is not open to change. But talks between the rival groups are mired in political sniping as each side blames the other for deaths during the coup. At least 17 people died when gunmen opened fire on an anti-government rally before the coup, and more than 50 people were killed during the rioting and looting that followed.
Opposition leaders this week stepped up their attempts to find legal alternatives to remove Chavez. A group of opposition assembly members Wednesday asked the attorney general to charge the president with embezzlement for what they allege is the government's misuse of $2.3 billion from a rainy-day savings fund. The president's critics are also exploring constitutional methods to remove him from power, such as reforming the constitution to shorten his term in office or a referendum to prompt new elections. ***
A brief State Department note underscored that tensions between Chávez government authorities and U.S. citizens in Venezuela remain high. The U.S. Embassy in Caracas has issued a protest over ''threatening remarks made to a U.S. diplomat at Maiquetia International Airport by authorities there, as well as mistreatment of two U.S. diplomats and a U.S. citizen teacher by local Venezuelan authorities during a weekend fishing trip,'' the department statement said.***
"We want democracy, that's what we're fighting for. We shouldn't pay too much attention to rumors, this is what is real," said Pedro Perez, a 40-year-old attorney marching with a Venezuelan flag over his shoulder. Eight weeks after the April 11-14 coup against Chavez, Venezuela is plagued by lingering political uncertainty as renewed fears of a fresh rebellion have rattled the world's fifth largest oil exporter.
At Miraflores Presidential Palace on Saturday, the armed forces had reinforced security with more soldiers, most dressed in camouflage fatigues rather than their usual uniforms. Government officials said Chavez, a former paratrooper who himself lead a failed coup in 1992, was not at the palace and had left the capital to visit pro-government rallies in Aragua and Tachira states to the west and southwest of the capital.***
"Just wait, work and try and get rid of me. On 19 August 2003, those who want to get rid of Chavez will have a constitutional, democratic opportunity to ask for a referendum," Chavez said. "And in case those who want me out manage to win the referendum, I'll collect my things and leave." Since 1998, Chavez has faced growing opposition to his self-proclaimed "revolution" he says has aided the poor and helped address inequality. But critics blame his government's social reforms and ties to anti-U.S. states such as Cuba and Libya for scaring off investors and splitting the oil-rich nation along class lines.***
Four junior officers who say they are part of a fresh coup plot agreed to talk with the Monitor on condition of anonymity. Three wore masks and camouflage fatigues, while the fourth - a national guard lieutenant - agreed to appear with his face uncovered. "We want to put a stop to an unsustainable situation," says an Army captain. "If nothing changes, we're heading for civil war."
Claiming to represent as much as 70 percent of the armed forces, the officers cited specifically military grievances, as well as their rejection of what they call the government's "communist tendencies." They produced a payslip showing that an ordinary member of the national guard earns as little as $150 per month after deductions. The armed forces, they claim, are being deliberately starved of resources while money is diverted to bolster so-called "Bolivarian circles." These civilian groups are seen by the Venezuelan opposition as partly a cover for the creation of militias.
Sources close to pro-Chávez hardliners confirm that automatic weapons have been distributed to civilian groups and that "some hotheads" would use them in the event of a coup. The military dissidents have threatened to kill any who represent a threat to lives or property. "We are prepared for anything," the Army captain says. He warned of a "river of blood" if there were resistance by pro-Chávez forces, adding that there were "fanatical military units too" that were willing to die for the government.***
Many analysts believe the FARC wants to erase all traces of government from hundreds of towns in order to create a power vacuum, then move in and take control. With more territory under its domain, experts say, the rebel group would be in a stronger position should the Colombian government reopen peace negotiations. "It's a very sophisticated strategy," said Vicente Torrijos, who teaches political science at Rosario University in Bogota, the nation's capital. "What's at stake are the conditions under which a new round of peace talks will be held."
President Andres Pastrana's government is pleading with mayors to stay put, offering them flak jackets, escorts and armored cars. His administration says it cannot accept resignations of public officials coerced by guerrillas at gunpoint. Even so, a domino effect appears to be taking hold. The rebel strategy has proved so effective in the south that the FARC last week extended decrees to parts of Arauca, Cesar and Bolivar states in northern Colombia.
At the Huila state government building in Neiva, an official said she has received letters of resignation from seven of that state's 37 mayors. Moments after she spoke, a nervous mayor burst into the room to announce that he, too, intends to abandon his post. "I have to," said Gentil Bahamon, mayor of the village of Suaza. "Besides, all my employees have resigned, so how can I work?"
Ever since the popular election of local officials began in Colombia in the early 1990s, small-town mayors have come under pressure from the guerrillas, who often outnumber police and army troops in isolated regions. During the electoral campaign two years ago, for example, the FARC met with scores of mayoral candidates to recommend rebel collaborators for city jobs and to demand payoffs from municipal budgets. Over the past 18 months, 14 mayors have been killed and 16 others kidnapped.
Last month, the guerrillas abruptly switched tactics when they began to issue expulsion orders. In some towns, they ordered only mayors to quit. Elsewhere, they told all civil servants to either resign or to simply stop working. "The mayors are bowing to the rebel warnings, because they know that these people are capable of killing them," Toro said. "This could generate an unprecedented institutional crisis, which is what the FARC wants."***
Tacna Mayor Luis Torres called on Toledo to reconsider his administration's privatization policies. Tempers have been rising in Arequipa and other southern departments for the past few months, with local politicians and left-leaning local groups opposing the government's plan to privatize state-owned companies.
A nationwide strike was called in mid-May to protest privatization and several mayors, including Arequipa Mayor Juan Guillén, have been on a hunger strike for a week to oppose the government's plans. Privatization is one of the most controversial components of Toledo's economic policy, with more than 60 percent of Peruvians rejecting privatization in public opinion polls.
Public opposition to the government's economic policies, especially privatization, is one of the reasons for Toledo's precipitous decline in public opinion polls since taking office last July.***
Some feared the protest could trigger clashes as in April, when shootings at an opposition march sparked a coup that ousted Chavez for two days. Dozens died in riots, and the coup revealed a sharply divided top brass. ``The armed forces don't belong to any political party, and (Chavez's) biggest mistake is insisting that the military support his revolution,'' said Francisco Arias Cardenas, who as an officer plotted a failed 1992 coup with Chavez and now heads the opposition Union party.
The retirees planned to march to a presidential palace, which is defended by civilian ``Chavistas'' not afraid to fight. Before a civilian march last Saturday, the government placed anti-aircraft batteries near the palace in what it called a security measure. The missiles can be aimed at the streets. Analysts point to Chavez's next round of military promotions on July 5 as another potential spark for violence in this nation on edge. ***
''We have come to end communism in Venezuela,'' said retired Army Col. Hidalgo Valera, who led a march by some 4,000 Chávez opponents to the dramatic encounter five blocks from the whitewashed Miraflores presidential palace. ''They will not pass,'' a smaller pro-Chávez crowd chanted four blocks from Miraflores, separated from the opposition marchers by four thick lines of police and National Guard riot units. The protests ended peacefully, unlike one April 11 that ended with pro-Chávez gunmen firing on the opposition. Enraged military commanders immediately toppled Chávez, but loyalists returned him to power April 14.
As the protesters marched Thursday, Chávez made a surprise visit to the shantytown of Las Malvinas, in south-eastern Caracas, warning supporters to be aware of another coup attempt. ''At any moment they can try to lash out at us like on April 11,'' he said according to The Associated Press.***
Citing fears of more upheaval, Venezuela yesterday postponed a summit of 15 leaders from the developing world that had been scheduled for next month. On Thursday, thousands of civilians and retired military officials attempted to march on the presidential palace to demand that Mr. Chavez stop politicizing military promotions. A counterdemonstration of Chavez loyalists blocked the marchers from reaching the palace.***
Alvarez accused Chavez and his campaign officers of violating campaign finance laws, El Nacional newspaper reported Thursday. Venezuelan laws require full disclosure of donations and prohibit donations from foreign business interests.
Also Thursday, the Supreme Court granted ordinary citizens the right to ask the court to strip the president and other officials of immunity from trial. Previously, only the attorney general could petition the court. The court ruled on a petition filed by Alvarez, who argued that Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez should not investigate 14 criminal corruption complaints pending against Chavez. because he is a Chavez ally.***
The populist president said his government had installed the air defenses on the basis of information obtained from suspects in the April 11-14 uprising that left more than 60 people dead. Chavez, a former paratrooper who himself led a botched coup in 1992 before turning to the ballot box, declined to provide further details. Miraflores is located in central Caracas near other key government buildings. ***
The leftist Chavez has won the support of millions of impoverished Venezuelans through his attempts to bring social equality and throw out what he considers a corrupt political elite. A large but disorganized opposition accuses him of amassing authoritarian powers and mismanaging the oil-rich economy of Venezuela, the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the United states.***
The end of the dollar peg and the 70 per cent plunge in the value of the peso since January have halted the national passion for travel. Now foreign trips are beyond the means of all but the wealthiest Argentines, those who held their savings in dollars and in offshore banks. International airlines have scrapped direct flights to the US and Europe or drastically cut their frequency. The only new route planned by a main airline is to Washington, home to the many multilateral institutions negotiating aid for Argentina. Even flying to another country at the end of the world is becoming difficult: Qantas dropped its flights to Australia this year.
Phoning is no better: the country's telecommunications network is decaying as foreign-owned phone operators, such as Spain's Telefónica, halt investment. International phone calls take longer to be connected and will soon be priced out of reach of most Argentines if, as planned, they are charged in dollars. Even the internet, which was supposed to make the distance between nations irrelevant, is deteriorating. Users say connections are slower and less reliable and operators say they cannot import parts to maintain the networks. And the foreign magazines at the kiosks on Florida Street are looking increasingly frayed. "We always had whatever title you wanted," said María Inés Freire, whose company distributes many foreign titles in Argentina. "The kiosks were overflowing with foreign newspapers and magazines. That no longer happens. We are isolated."
Argentines who used to be versed in world affairs find there is a growing gulf between them and their foreign friends. Carolina Barros, a public relations executive, said she has had to abandon subscriptions to The Economist and Wallpaper magazines since their price in pesos soared. "Wallpaper is more expensive than an Argentine coffee table book. I feel like I'm being isolated from the world. "We Argentines always felt we were a touch above other Latin Americans," said Ms Barros. "Now we find we're at the bottom of the pile. I e-mail a Brazilian friend and I feel like we're from a different continent. They'll say they're installing hardware on their computer that we can no longer buy. In less than a year we've managed to erase the progress of an entire decade."***
……. During Sunday's five-hour broadcast, Chavez also dismissed accusations he improperly took funds from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Spain's second-largest bank. Bank officials have denied committing a crime, but acknowledged last week the bank acted without transparency when it provided $1.5 million to the president's campaigns. The president also denied opposition charges his government hurt the economy by selling cheap petroleum to Cuba. Critics of Chavez, a close ally of Cuban President Fidel Castro, blame the president's self-proclaimed "revolution" for nudging Venezuela into recession. ***
In a Jan. 22, 1999, speech, just days after Brazil's currency devaluation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that Brazil's economic ills could dampen demand for U.S. goods, especially if its symptoms spread to other countries. Brazil, Mr. Greenspan said, must rein in its budget deficit and ward off inflation in order "to limit the potential for contagion to the financial markets and economies of Brazil's important trading partners, including the United States." Mr. Greenspan's successive interest-rate cuts in the wake of Russia's 1998 and Brazil's 1999 economic meltdowns helped insulate America from the risks of a global economic downturn.
In the past couple of months, Brazil has come under intense financial pressure that harkens back to its 1999 crisis. Investor wariness of Brazilian risk has caused debt to become incredibly expensive, which could in turn cause substantial financial havoc. Currently, Brazilian bonds are being sold at 17 percentage points over U.S. Treasury bonds.
But just what are the inherent risks to investing in Brazil? In many respects, the economic news is better than it was in 1999. The country's total external debt, which is equivalent to 50 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), is held primarily by the private sector. Brazil's currency today floats freely, so investors aren't likely to be hit with an unexpected, precipitous currency plunge. And, since Brazil is widely considered by many in Washington to be too large to let fail, the International Monetary Fund loaned Brazil a not-too-shabby $15.7 billion last September.
Still, there are some economic clouds as well. Brazil's GDP declined by 1.5 percent last year. In the 12-month period that concluded March 31, the economy has grown a mere 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, public debt has grown to 55 percent of GDP, and much of it is linked to the dollar.
But investors' most strident fears are centered around the political future, rather than the economic present. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the presidential candidate for the opposition Workers' Party, is so far the country's favorite to win the election in October. He is largely considered a wild card when it comes to economic policy. Mr. Silva has recently tried to allay investor jitters by pledging to "maintain whatever primary budget surplus was necessary" to control the rise of domestic debt, and said he wouldn't let Brazil default on its debts if he became president.
Much could happen in the months leading up to October, and Brazilians may just decide to opt out of the Lula da Silva gamble. Still, should the crisis in Brazil worsen, America should take the necessary monetary and fiscal steps to insulate the domestic economy from risk and stand prepared to help Brazil with advice. However, it should show considerable restraint in undertaking yet another billion-dollar Brazilian bailout. [End]
As evening fell, hundreds more protesters gathered outside Congress and the presidential palace in central Buenos Aires, and the clanging of pots and pans as ordinary Argentines joined in the demonstrations recalled scenes that preceded the fall of President Fernando de la Rua amid food riots. Argentina's caretaker leader, Eduardo Duhalde, languishing in the polls and fighting for his political future, had vowed a get-tough approach on protests as he struggled to convince a skeptical International Monetary Fund to agree to an aid pact vital to stemming a spiraling social crisis and punishing four-year recession.
Protesters, who demand government aid for everything from medicine to food and who regularly block main highways around Argentina, accused the baton-wielding police of heavy-handedness. They said more than 90 demonstrators were injured. "We have got to end Duhalde and the IMF's reign. If we don't get change, we will have to fight on," said one picketer brandishing a catapult. Tear gas mingled with smoke from burning tires laid on the road by demonstrators. Television footage showed the corpse of one of the two protesters shot to death on the outskirts of the capital being rushed from the scene in the back of a pickup truck, his lifeless eyes wide open. It was unclear who fired the shots. [End]
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