I'd fly a million miles for one...
....of your smiles.......
.....my Yasser
Posted on 04/10/2002 5:28:27 PM PDT by Axion
Israel: Calculation Could Backfire If Incorrect Summary
10 April 2002
Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, the leading dove in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Cabinet, has been sidelined just before U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's scheduled arrival. Peres has been reluctant to defy U.S. demands to halt operations in Palestinian areas. Sharon, however, has read the diplomatic tea leaves and determined that although the United States is bowing to international pressure for a peace mission, it is willing to give him time to complete military operations successfully. Sharon's line of reasoning has several potential defects, however.
Analysis
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has put off his arrival in Israel as long as possible. He has traveled through Morocco, Egypt and Spain, and there are now unconfirmed rumors that he is planning to stop off in Rome before finally heading for Israel.
Israeli leaders have done nothing that would make his visit easier. Despite being told nearly a week ago that Powell was coming -- and that all that was expected was the beginning of a military withdrawal from Palestinian areas -- Israel has given no sign that it intends to comply. If Powell does indeed go to Israel, it will be into an unabated firestorm rather than into a situation that is in the process of winding down.
This has created an incipient crisis in Israel's Cabinet. Leftists serving in the inner "kitchen" Cabinet, primarily Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, have been moved aside for rightists more to the liking of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Obviously, serious tensions have developed over the course of the war. Sharon appears to have had substantial support for the initial phases of the current operation. There was a general consensus in Israel that radical steps had to be taken to stop the suicide bombings, but the Israeli end game was never clear.
Peres undoubtedly wanted to see the operation winding down by the time Powell arrived. For Peres, no purely military settlement is possible, and any military operation must segue into diplomacy. From his viewpoint, alienating the United States would be extremely dangerous. Clearly, Peres' arguments inside the decision-making nexus of Israeli policy had become sufficiently divisive that Sharon was prepared to shift the structure of the inner Cabinet rather than deal with the division.
Sharon has a very different view of the situation. He is not convinced that there is a danger of a break with the United States. Sharon was undoubtedly struck by the fact that more than a week would elapse between the time Powell's trip was announced and his actual arrival. For him, this was a clear signal from the United States that while it was bowing to international pressure for a peace mission, it did not regard such a mission as urgent. Put differently, Washington was content to see Israel complete its military operations successfully.
For Sharon, the key here was not time, but rather the United States' willingness to give Israel sufficient time for the operation to reach its objectives. From Sharon's reading of the situation, it followed that a successful conclusion to the operation was more important to the United States than a quick conclusion. Therefore, despite the imminence of Powell's arrival, Sharon is more concerned with the state of the operation than he is with Powell's visit and, for better or worse, he believes that the United States is secretly in line with his thinking.
From Sharon's perspective, the United States and Israel share the same enemy: militant Islam. The same forces that carry out attacks in Israel carry out attacks in the United States. The Arab world has united in rejecting U.S. plans to attack Iraq. In effect, the Arab world has blocked the U.S. strategy to fight Islamic threats. Therefore, the United States is now objectively in the same position, facing the same enemy, as Israel. It therefore is logical to assume that Washington, entirely reluctant to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis to begin with, is not at all sincere in demanding an end to the war. From Sharon's point of view, the war is implicitly sanctioned by the United States; otherwise, the U.S. intervention would have been earlier and far more aggressive.
Sharon is drawing a number of conclusions from this. First, given the April 10 suicide bombing in Haifa, it is clear that the Israeli military operation cannot be concluded in the next few days. Second, given the threat from Hezbollah along the northern frontier, it follows that Sharon will want to launch operations there. Finally, although Gaza has been attacked in the past, Israeli operations have yet to be staged there. It is unlikely that Sharon will leave Gaza out of the equation.
Having committed himself to this course, the worst of all worlds for Sharon would be to stop halfway. The diplomatic damage would be done, but without achieving the military benefits. The fact that Powell is coming to Israel does not, in his mind, represent a significant event. To Sharon's thinking, Powell's visit was designed not to be taken seriously by Israel. Powell will come, he will meet with people -- including Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat -- and he will leave, allowing Israel to deal with the situation.
This is not an unreasonable point of view, but it has several potential defects. First, if the Palestinians can remount their suicide attacks at nearly the same tempo of operations as before, the Israeli consensus supporting the war could dissolve very rapidly. Second, if Israel gets bogged down in an interminable conflict in the West Bank and Lebanon, in which casualties mount without any clear conclusion, his ability to continue the war will be in doubt.
Finally, Sharon is assuming a great deal about the United States' willingness to give Israel freedom of action. Clearly, Powell and Washington have been prepared to give Sharon some room for maneuver. However, Washington's primary concern remains al Qaeda, and Powell's obsession remains the anti-al Qaeda coalition. If the United States were to conclude that Israel's actions genuinely, not rhetorically, threaten the United States' ability to wage war -- in other words, if it turned out that Arab states would cooperate with the United States against Iraq and al Qaeda if it forced Israel to back off -- then Sharon's complacency could backfire on him.
All of this leads Sharon to conclude that the operation must continue as quickly and effectively as possible, on all fronts necessary, in order to achieve its ends and conclude before the United States really does get angry. Sharon understands Peres' point, but he simply believes he has much more time and room for maneuver.
Unless Powell brings a surprise to Israel -- assuming he ever arrives -- Sharon may well be right.
Well, this would sure be to the liking of the neanderthal, primordial, backward-thinking paleocons we have running around here. I can hear them cheering now.
Every Day is a Winding Road. (Sheryl Crow)
and there are now unconfirmed rumors that he is planning to stop off in Rome before finally heading for Israel.
Hhahaha.
Traveling minstrel show. (Just a joke and no generalized insult or racial slur intended)
I'd fly a million miles for one...
....of your smiles.......
.....my Yasser
hee hee.....
Your best guess big d... when, at what hour do YOU think he will actually arrive there.. ISRAELI GMT??
I think we need to start up the pool, don't you?
Odds of his actually arriving THIS week BEFORE sundown sabbath? LESS THAN FIFTY PERCENT?
Or the plantation shuffle (no racial slur intended). We are going to drag this out as long as possible. There is a reason for this.
He can try and talk to Arafat on Shabbat but he will prolly be sick of all the Arab lies and BS he's just heard on his "listening tour" of Arab nations.
Toads.
IDF killed the leader of hamas in Jenin... of COURSE its going to be quiet now... they have no personal representative of SATAN to worship... no dynamite belts from Gaultier or Chanel, to shop for at the local nailbomb shop, or to consider buying for little ahmed's tenth birthday next week.
I don't see any of the fat, black sheeted cows blurballing their "la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-" forked-tongues whilst gleefully gaggling in the streets...
It is about freaking time. No candy parties today... Humiliation is the new LORD of the flies here. And that, is a good thing.
The bloodshed ONLY stops when all the murdering terrorist idiots are assuming earth temperature.
Silent Night... its a good thing. I pray it lasts and increases...
That is the litmus test for Sharon's policy. I suspect he will fail that test, and fall. But predictions in this region are always risky.
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