Posted on 04/07/2002 8:49:09 AM PDT by Brian Mosely
Edited on 09/03/2002 4:50:15 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
Last fall FBI profilers announced that the person who sent deadly anthrax-laced letters to news organizations and Capitol Hill was probably a grudge-bearing, sociopathic male laboratory nerd with knowledge of the geography of Trenton, N.J. But a new scientific analysis sent to top government officials suggests the anthrax attacker may be a scientific whiz so smart that he succeeded in making a
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
That's exactly right. New Jersey has a large middle eastern/muslim population. My focus has been on this combined with the very large number of middle eastern students attending Rutgers University. Rutgers is known for specializing in the sciences. Particularly microbiology. A couple of months ago the feds were investigating the photocopiers at Rutgers for a possible match to the anthrax letters. I found that interesting. I've been checking regularly for updates on that story in the Jersey papers.
And don't forget, Britain's in an uproar because Blair says he supports the US in taking out Saddam...soon!
This is true, of course. But there's a time element that you're omitting. At the moment, we are still much more powerful than Iraq. But things will get progressively worse over time. If we simply let this standoff continue for a period of, say, 10 or 20 years, by that time Iraq will have full-fledged nuclear capability and the balance of power will be irreparably changed, much for the worse.
We must do something soon. And, basically, the sooner the better, since Iraq is only getting stronger. The only thing to wait for is sufficient anthrax and smallpox vaccine for our population, and that's well under way.
This is not a pretty scenario. But it's better than what we would see after two decades of inaction.
The biggest wild card in all this is China. I don't know what China's involvement might be, if any, but that could be holding Pres. Bush back too.
Lots of anthrax theories, no proof
The Associated Press
Bioterrorism experts say the teaspoonful of powdered anthrax spores sent to Sen. Tom Daschle's office could have come from an Iraqi weapons laboratory or a New Jersey basement.
They say it could have been made by experienced biological weapons scientists or educated amateurs with access to special equipment, techniques and advice.
More than six weeks after anthrax-tainted letters began arriving, federal authorities say they still know almost nothing about where the deadly powder comes from or who cooked it up.
"We don't know its origin," Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge said Wednesday. "We have not ruled out whether this was an act of an individual or a collective act, whether it was a domestic source or a foreign source." At least three anthrax-laced letters have been mailed since the Sept. 11 attacks that destroyed the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon. But the one opened in Daschle's office on Oct. 15 has attracted the most attention.
Stunned officials used words like "weaponized" and "potent" to describe the powder in the hours after it wafted out of an envelope addressed to Daschle in crude block letters. Later, a rigorous analysis by the U.S. Army Research Institute of Infectious Disease at Fort Detrick, Md., found that the powdered anthrax in the Daschle letter was the perfect size to float in the air and lodge in the lungs.
In addition to knowledge, it probably took a well-constructed laboratory to produce the high-quality powder that was sent to Daschle's office, said former United Nations weapons inspector Richard Spertzel.
He believes a foreign country is the source of the anthrax in the Daschle letter, most likely Iraq.
But Richard H. Ebright, a microbiologist and bioterrorism expert at Rutgers University, thinks the powder was produced much closer to its target. "I continue to believe the most likely prospect is that it was produced by a single person or a small group of people locally," Ebright said. "By locally I mean New Jersey."
Ebright argues that one or two biological weapons experts could have visited New Jersey long before Sept. 11, imparted their rarified knowledge to a few local operatives, then left without ever being noticed.
Let's assume ( just for argument's sake ) the Cubans did initiate this attack :
1. What was their motive ?
2. Does the choice of "targets" suggest anything ?
3. Could the seemingly random "collateral victims" have been links of some sort ( conscious, unconscious, accidental ) on the "Old Comrades' Network" ?
I believe the original networks, set up by the Communists prior to the "fall" of Russia, may still be in existence: utilized by The Cubans and/or Chinese - to whom the American communists may have transferred their loyalty. (Cuba would seem the logical beneficiary of this loyalty, given the attachment of American communists to its "revoluntionary struggle".)
LET'S KEEP THIS THREAD GOING !!
Both are. It turns out the Ames strain actually originated in Texas, but was misidenified as coming from Ames because of the return address on the re-usable container a Texas A&M scientist used to ship the samples.
You also don't know what's true, and what's disinformation. You don't even know who it is that the dispensers of disinformation are trying to fool, nor the extent to which the press adds their own distortions and uninitentional inaccuracies.
However, assuming this story is essentially true, what conclusions can be drawn?
First, it should be noted that the strain of the microbe has been widely distributed, and is considered to be the gold standard for use as a weapon. This means that whoever chose it would not have needed to do any testing on the anthrax strain itself to check its effectiveness. It also means that the perpetrators would have assumed (perhaps wrongly, given subsequent technical advances) that there would be no need to worry too much about having their identity determined by genetic testing.
Secondly, it means that the weaponized anthrax did not come from stockpiles of weapons-grade anthrax produced by publicly-admitted US bioweapons programs that were terminated decades ago. But it in no way means that the anthrax did not come from "black" US bioweapons programs that may be operating right this minute (the "mad scientist issues warning" scenario). If the anthrax did in fact come from a "black" US research effort, then the authorities would obviously wish to hide that fact using any means necessary.
What distinguishes the anthrax in the letters from other anthrax are two things: 1) the fineness of the milling, and 2) the effectivness of the coating. Milling technology can be researched, applied, learned and taught without having anything to do with anthrax. The same goes for coatings. The only complications that anthrax adds are a) how to powderize, mill and coat the anthrax without disabling it, and b) how to powderize, mill and coat the anthrax without infecting oneself.
A person who already has expertise with a) safely handling dangerous microbes, and b) powderizing, milling and applying coatings to microbial powders, would not necessarily need to conduct any elaborate testing of the powderized, milled and coated anthrax he produces. He already knows the bacterial strain is potent. He already knows how to powderize, mill and coat the spores without disabling them. He already knows the optimal size for the spores. He already knows the optimal properties for a coating. And if his purpose is merely to warn, or to scare the US into taking the threat of bioweapons seriously, or to profit from panic, extensive testing just isn't necessary. You don't need to actually expose hordes of monkeys to anthrax powder just to check whether or not the spores are active. You don't need to expose humans to anthrax just to check the aerosol properties of your powder, or the ability of the spores to penetrate various materials.
You do, however, need access to the right equipment and supplies. I am no expert in this area, but I have been told that this could all be done in someone's garage, using equipment whose cost is not beyond the means of a reasonably well-to-do individual. You also need someone who either knows about milling techniques and coatings that are not general knowledge among those who work in this field, or who is capable of coming up with new techniques of his own that outclass what everyone else thought was the state of the art. This is not impossible, although it does seem at least somewhat unlikely. It certainly narrows the field of suspects--which the perpetrator would have to know, making this scenario even more unlikely.
Thirdly, then, we conclude that if the perpetrator is a "mad scientist," then he probably got his anthrax from some "black" weapons program, or else got the required knowledge there.
Finally, it should be obvious that this information, if correct, raises the likelihood that the anthrax letters were sent by a foreign power, and not by terrorists who somehow got hold of anthrax from an old Soviet stockpile (for example).
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