You mean like this?
Forcings and Chaos in Global Climate Change
Read it and see if you think the models can't reproduce the past accurately.
This part was stunning: this is the only report of "hard" evidence for greenhouse gas warming I've seen. Unfortunately, it doesn't say exactly how the team "inferred" the radiative imbalance. It would seem to me that a few satellites scanning the Earth's surface vs. incoming radiation could determine if the Earth is radiating as much energy out as it takes in. Of course, the radiative imbalance could also be caused (temporarily) by a miniscule change in solar output. It would take a while (as the link notes) for an equilibrium to be re-established.