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To: rmlew
Hizbollah is trying to force a war. They hope that Israeli response will provke a Syrian response and Iranian aide.

Regrettably, I feel this statement to be bang on.

Arafat is cornered, and with him are (supposedly) several high ranking terrorism directors, if not some of the most dangerous terrorists themselves. I've come to believe that Israel's strategy is to expose these associations to the world, either by taking the whole lot of them into custody or killing everyone but Arafat and holding the facts up to the world. My opinion only, I admit.

The danger here is that if these interlopers are exposed the Israelis will be able to tie them to foreign governments, a motivation that may encourage those others to "cloud the waters" by expanding the conflict. The threats we are seeing may, and I empahsise only may, be behind any aggressive statements or actions we see over the next few days. This situation is volatile, to say the least.

If any other Arab country were to attack Israel, the fog of war could get very thick. Israel virtually certainly has the ability to defeat any attack, but the cost could be horrific. For an enemy, however, especially with something to hide, the risk of starting a larger conflict could be interpreted as a way to change the world's subject from international terrorism to "Israeli oppression." I personally wouldn't take this tack if I were them but there's no shortage of examples where Arab rulers made unwise decisions.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see an escalation coming that none of really want. Just MHO.

mitchbert

12 posted on 04/01/2002 3:42:32 PM PST by mitchbert
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To: mitchbert
Great observation!

I agree that Arabs have never had a more opportune time to "turn" the world against Israel. I doubt if the general public truly realizes the volatility of the current situation.

17 posted on 04/01/2002 4:13:54 PM PST by Icthus
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