Social Security and Stocks - A Solution

'Copernicus' ^ | March 24, 2002 | 'Copernicus'

[Matchett-PI]

Milton Friedman called these "...a very informative set of calculations."

The original Social Security program was designed 65 years ago in 1937. But it was fatally flawed because it did not adequately anticipate future rates of inflation or life expectancy. In 1937, CPI averaged 1.4% per year over the previous 25 years. Since then, it has averaged 4.0% per year. Life expectancy then was 60 years. Today it is 77. Any remedy to the present retirement system must comprehend and solve the unpleasant unpredictability of both these factors. What should be done? Abolishing the present system is the best solution to its problems and transitioning to a new, privatized plan as the old one is phased out. In the new plan, stocks will be safer than Treasury bonds in a pension-fund setting. It will cost remarkably less than the old. Life expectancy will not matter nor will the rate of inflation. Expansion of benefits will be possible. Further, the Treasury will be relieved permanently of an ever growing, ever taxing, ever losing proposition.

The present hue and cry about Enron and stock dangers to retirement systems are not relevant, nor the recent collapse of NASDAQ, nor presumed other risks, nor quarterly, annual, 3-, 5-, and 10-year performance reports, as we shall see. [SNIP]

Go HERE to continue reading the article "The Hidden Wealth in Social Security II -- $2,300,000 at Age 62 on Retirement"

[Matchett-PI]

I think this idea has merit! I'd appreciate hearing what other interested FReepers think about it after they read the details.

[isthisnickcool]

It says "There will be no money left after 2039".

There is no money there now. Just IOU's. It's not a trust fund since there are no funds in the trust.

[LarryLied]

Government workers already know the power of private investments. 6.8 million of them are not in Social Security, pay no SS taxes and are 100% invested in the markets (this depends on your state and union. 97% are out in Ohio, 91% in Massachusetts,56% in California, 27% in Georgia, 5% in New York).

[WillaJohns]

Very interesting. One question: Where will the money come from for all the people who retire after only a few years of actual work because they have become permanently disabled??

[justin4bush]

Answer: Their family.

It's not my job to support anyone except myself and my family. Why is it that everyone seems to think those that have money should support those that do not??

Justin

[liberallarry]

Noblesse oblige. Charity. Old, old concepts deemed necessary for a decent society.

In the old days, when most people lived on farms and the family was extended and close, family support made a lot more sense than it does now. But life expectancy wasn't too good. It wasn't paradise.

We're searching for something better, something more in keeping with the way we actually live.

[WillaJohns]

Perhaps you took my post wrong. I'm not advocating that the government dole out charity, as they already do. However, to change Social Security items such as these must be taken into consideration as the majority of Americans have come to expect this. Social Security will never be changed in any form unless these problems are addressed. This is a thread about solving the problem of getting rid of SS.

[LaFontaine]

Read the fine print on any published stock chart. It will always say something like:

Past Performance is not an Indication of Future Performance.

If you look at average gains since 1939 you can see that the stock market only outperformed bond market by a slight margin.

[Matchett-PI]

"Government workers already know the power of private investments."

Thanks for your comments. I take it you agree with the privatization of SS idea. Did you read the article, and do you think it is something we should try to get our elected reprentatives to look at?

I subscribe to the 24/7 feature, so I think I'm going to email Rush Limbaugh (who is all for SS privatization) from his web site and see if I can get him interested in taking a look at this particular idea about how to privatize it.

[Matchett-PI]

"There is no money there now.."

The money is there as a bookeeping notation and is kept in the general fund. (Earns more interest that way?)

Thanks for your comments.

[Matchett-PI]

"One question: Where will the money come from for all the people who retire after only a few years of actual work because they have become permanently disabled??"

That question was addressed in the link to the origional article that Milton Friedman commented on. It's linked at the web site at the end of the excerpted article I posted above.

Thanks for your comments!! Do you know of others you could ping who are well-versed in the stock market and/or government who might want to take a look at this idea? I'd love to see them critique it.

[Matchett-PI]

"We're searching for something better.."

Yes, we are! We want people to be able to leave the unused portion of their private retirement nest egg (untaxed) to their children, or to whomever they choose.

Thanks for your comments! Please ping others you might know who are looking for ideas about the privatization of SS that they can support and promote to their elected representatives.

[isthisnickcool]

The money is there as a bookeeping notation and is kept in the general fund

No matter. There still is no money there. It's not a trust fund. Money comes in, the IOU is placed there, then the money goes into general revenue where it's used to pay current benefits. The balance of the cash is used to pay other general obligations.

And these people had a problem with ENRON?

I'd just like to be able to opt-out. Thank-you-very-much.

[liberallarry]

I'll do my best. You might search the old social security threads. I remember a knowledgeable guy who had some pretty intelligent criticism of other privatisation ideas. I'd love to hear his opinion on your post (But it means going through a hundred old threads to find him!).

[Matchett-PI]

"If you look at average gains since 1939 you can see that the stock market only outperformed bond market by a slight margin."

Did you read the article and the link to the longer (origional) one on which Milton Friedman commented?

Of course, there's no such thing as a sure thing. Who would expect that (other than one of the DemocRAT party's constituants)? One could immediately write off any person as a nit-wit who would not add the prudent caveat that the past isn't a guarantee of the future. Even in a horse race, "past performance" is an indicator of "future performance" barring any inforseen difficulties/problems.

Thanks for your comments.

[Matchett-PI]

"I'll do my best. You might search the old social security threads. I remember a knowledgeable guy who had some pretty intelligent criticism of other privatisation ideas."

I don't recall any of the threads on SS. Nor do I recall seeing anyone criticizing the various privatization ideas. I would love to know who it was. I'd love to see what he thinks about this idea. Maybe one of the other FReepers would know who it was.

Thanks!

[Matchett-PI]

Bump!

I'd appreciate your comments on this particular SS privatization idea after you've had time to read it. Be sure not to miss the longer article that is linked from the web site. That is the one that has the details that Milton Friedman commented on.

As an aside, do you have any idea who the FReeper in reply #14 is talking about?

[Matchett-PI]

Bump!

I'd appreciate your comments on this particular SS privatization idea after you've had time to read it. Be sure not to miss the longer article that is linked from the web site. That is the one that has the details that Milton Friedman commented on.

Please ping anyone else that you think might want to read about this idea and comment on it.

As an aside, do you have any idea who the FReeper in reply #14 is talking about?

[Matchett-PI]

Bump!

I'd appreciate your comments on this particular SS privatization idea after you've had time to read it. Be sure not to miss the longer article that is linked from the web site. That is the one that has the details that Milton Friedman commented on.

Please ping anyone else that you think might want to read about this idea and comment on it. As an aside, do you have any idea who the FReeper is that reply #14 is talking about?

[Matchett-PI]

Bump!

I'd appreciate your comments on this particular SS privatization idea after you've had time to read it. Be sure not to miss the longer article that is linked from the web site. That is the one that has the details that Milton Friedman commented on.

Please ping anyone else that you think might want to read about this idea and comment on it.

As an aside, do you have any idea who the FReeper in reply #14 is talking about?