The first sign of problems was the announcement in January that octogenarian Luis Miquilena, one of Venezuela's most influential politicians, would step down as interior and justice minister. Having used Miquilena to gain credibility with Venezuela's established left-wing parties, Chavez discarded the advocate of moderation and democracy in favor of Venezuelan navy Capt. Ramon Rodriguez Chacin, a hardened Marxist who is Chavez's personal liaison to Colombia's narcoguerrillas.
The early February decision by Chavez to replace Gen. Guaicaipuro Lameda as president of the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDV), marks yet another sign of the deterioration in the country's political scene. Lameda received high marks for his management of PDV; that is, the military man allowed the professionals inside the company to run the oil monopoly without political interference. Venezuela produces 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and has the largest oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere.
The appointment of Central Bank Director Gaston Parra, a stalwart Chavez supporter and leftist crony with ties to Cuba, as the new head of PDV adds weight to the view that Chavez is increasingly isolated. Parra is the oil company's fourth president in little more than three years. Neither the Chavez government nor PDV officially explained Lameda's removal, but the reaction from foreign oil companies operating in Venezuela is decidedly negative. PDV workers at all levels greeted Parra with great disdain and antipathy. [End Excerpt]
****More ominously, the same sources with direct access to the highest levels of the Venezuelan military tell INSIGHT that the Cuban connection remains strong, directly contradicting U.S. press reports that the Cubans have soured on Chavez. Indeed, sources in the U.S. intelligence community tell INSIGHT that the Cubans have their claws deep into the chaotic Chavez regime. One senior U.S. official reveals that the entire security force protecting Chavez is made up of Cuban military personnel and that Venezuela's elite military intelligence force also has been largely penetrated by Cuba's intelligence services.
"Chavez may survive his latest problems," says Lee Rivas, a retired U.S. Army colonel who served in Venezuela and now consults for foreign companies there, "but the days of the Bolivarian revolution are numbered." The native Caraceño says a leading contender to replace Chavez may be Francisco Arias Cardenas, a one-time Chavez ally who now is among his fiercest critics. Foreign media outlets overlook the fact that Arias, a former army officer who opposed Chavez in the 1999 presidential elections, won 37.5 percent of the vote.
Perhaps the most significant factor working against Chavez is the professional and careful Venezuelan army, which increasingly is uncomfortable with Chavez's public diatribes and especially his use of the army for "social work." One Venezuelan military man who was trained in the United States tells INSIGHT that his colleagues in the officer corps are unhappy with Chavez's embrace of Colombian guerrillas and the close ties to Cuba's corrupt military, both of which actively deal in narcotics. ******