Explain please...
It is clear that most of the people in Afghanistan and Pakistan do not want us there (Remember the Zogby poll?), and there is a very large contingent of radical Islamists in both countries. Afghanistan is inhabited by locals who move in and out of various armies, apparently quite comfortably.
Neither Musharraf nor Karzai are in good control of their countries. Karzai is just another warlord with only regional influence, and Musharraf tells us he is barely hanging on by a thread and cannot clean up the "radical element" without being overthrown.
As a result, I conclude there is far more loyalty to Islam and Jihad then there is to the West.
I doubt that the Afghans or Pakis feel any particular loyalty to Saddam. But their anger against the West has been cultivated for years by rhetoric describing the atrocities of the West against the poor Muslims in Iraq.
Our troops are already under daily attack in Afghanistan. And there have been some assaults on the base in Pakistan. We simply don't have enough troops in either country to defend themselves if those countries explode in anti-West anger because we attacked another Muslim country.(Though I think that there is hope if the West can be seen as helping the Kurdish Muslims overthrow Saddam--but that point of view will take time to cultivate in the minds of the Muslim world). Our contingents in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, etc. are in the same boat.
So, if we are going to attack Iraq, we have to do one of three things:
1) We pray that Musharraf and Karzai really have turned pro-West and give them time to get their countrymen firmly under control. (The same with SA, Indonesia, etc.)
2) We evacuate our people out of those places before we strike Iraq.(Which means we give up that access to oil)
3) We sacrifice those forces there to the mobs that would come against them (which would be so politically unacceptable at home, that I don't think that would happen).
So if we're asking Israel to keep taking it on the chin until we move against Iraq, I think the Israelis may be in for a long wait. Convince me I'm wrong, and I'll be happy to change my mind.