You forgot house parties, I never go to bars its too easy to score at a private residence... Good tip. I prefer Starbucks, bookstore, or walking the dog. There isn't enough latex or lysol to protect from bar dangers. :-)
In a friends house the girls are drunker, willing to do it there or go nearby-many years of experience and sucess has taught me this.
Your odds are about 1 in 20 at a bar on a good night, at a house party I would say 1 in 5.