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Going from the 2000 returns. These are the GORE Counties in California. Simon has to make up 1.3 million votes from the 2000 returns, either by suppressed turnout, increased turnout, or mindchanges.

Alameda (Oakland??)- Gore by 223,000
Contra Costa(Bay Area I think) - Gore by 80,000
Humboldt - Gore by 1500, Nader had 13%
Imperial - Gore by 3000
Lake - Gore by 2000
Los Angeles - Gore by 900,000
MArin(Bay Area) - Gore by 45,000
Mendocino - Gore by 4,000
Monterey - Gore by 24,000
Napa - Gore by 7500
Sacramento - Gore by 13,000
San Benito - Gore by 2000
San Francisco - Gore by 190,000
San Mateo(Where's that?) - Gore by 86,000
Santa Barbara - Gore by 2000
Santa Clara(Don't know that area?) - Gore by 140,000
Santa Cruz(Don't know that area) - Gore by 37,000
Solano(don't know that area) - Gore by 24000
Somona(don't know that area) - Gore by 54000
Yolo(don't know) - Gore by 10,000

Some of those areas are going to be real tough to overcome. The San Fran/Jokeland/Bezerkely/San Jose area will be tough. LA County will also be tough. Simon needs San Diego, Fresno, Orange, East Side of the state, Tulare, Shasta, Ventura, Riverside, Placer, Sacramento, and Santa Barbara to come through. I don't know offhand some of those counties(which I noted), but there are more dem areas there than I thought.

A lot of liberals are mad at Davis. And the state is volatile. That is why when I read the bit that Simon had paid Lou Sheldon 30 K in his primary, I was amazed. That when the books are written, may be viewed as a fatal error. In any event, past play books should not be taken too seriously, particulary for a non federal office race.

Going from the 2000 returns. These are the GORE Counties in California. Simon has to make up 1.3 million votes from the 2000 returns, either by suppressed turnout, increased turnout, or mindchanges.

You are right, but you are missing one part of the formula, you have to be here to realize how despised Davis is.

The young African American lady who cut my hair the other night was saying how she doesn't know a thing about politics and never votes, but she thinks Davis is an idiot, and she's going to make sure she goes to vote against him this fall.

I think Simon's victory will come from a combination of things; an increase in the motivated conservative/GOP turnout, depressed Dem/Liberal turnout as they realize they have to chose between a conservative and a big ol' doofus, and simple turnover as many people who voted for Gore for superficial reasons decide that the honest and plain-speaking Bill Simon isn't such a bad guy, and that his ideas on rebuilding California make sense.