[Hildy]

No it's not. We all know that if the Democratic base goes to vote, we're toast. The idea is to let them think Simon is behind, that way they'll stay home. This is going to be a long seven months.

[David]

"We all know that if the Democratic base goes to vote, we're toast."

That is not what the poll numbers above show--to the contrary, they show that if we get a straight proportunate turn out, Simon wins; even if the Dems get a disproportunate turn out, we still win if they don't beat us in the turn out race by six percent.

Although this poll is an early run, it looks awfully good for Simon. It tells us the people have decided to throw the incumbent out and that they have some positive view of our candidate who also is ahead by more than the margin of error. In that seat, it is difficult for an independent attack ad to do enough damage to beat you.