I think it's more likely that any offensive action won't happen until 2003 rather than this Fall, however there is still the possibility of a 'shock' attack before the elections.
Back on the 18th of June there was word in the intel community that President Bush wanted to engage in an attack "as early as August".
My guess is that we are ready today. The only hold up is Saddam's Scud missiles. Once we believe we have them neutralized, the attack will begin.