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1 posted on 03/15/2002 1:47:27 PM PST by maquiladora
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To: maquiladora
Re #1

In my opinion, the all-out assault will be preceded by internal guerilla uprising probably by Kurds. This will distract Saddam. He has to divert part of his elite troops to fight these guerillas. While this insurgency is in progress under the direction of CIA/SpecOps, U.S. will try to instigate defection of high ranking people or army units. Then U.S. can mount an invasion. But due to WMD, the invasion force may be spread out and move in slower pace. Anytime Saddam uses his WMD to Kurds, American troops or Israelis, U.S. will use her small nukes for retaliations. It is politically less provacative for U.S. to nuke Iraq than Israel. I know, U.S. is a great satan in Mid-East. But U.S. is still more popular than Israel. Finally, if the stalemate develops in the battlefield for some reason, U.S. will again use nukes to finish the war. U.S. cannot afford to have prolonged attrition battle Muslim extremists are so fond of waging. U.S. should not give any hopes to them. If they play madmen, they will be nuked.

2 posted on 03/15/2002 2:11:32 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: maquiladora
So basically what you guys are saying is we had better hope that Saddam doesnt have the capabilities to launch his WMDs.
6 posted on 03/15/2002 2:19:41 PM PST by fiftymegaton
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To: maquiladora
Did we ever get any confirmation regarding a Turkish News Site saying that families of US Military should start to pack up and go home in the next three months?
9 posted on 03/15/2002 2:22:07 PM PST by cmsgop
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To: maquiladora
What happened to the muslim terrorist activities going on in the horn-of-africa region? You know, somalia, ethiopia, etc. I thought we were going in there to mop up the bin-laudin-type groups operating there. It seems to me that this region would have priority over saddam insane. Iraq is a separate issue. Surely there are many good christian ethiopians that could be recruited to help us in this region.
21 posted on 03/15/2002 2:44:44 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: maquiladora
I don't like it at all. Jordan, I think, could very easily be on our side. Our relations have improved due to their own Palestinian problem in the '70s. I hate to have an outright invasion of a country because they pose a threat. IMHO we should practice the MAD theory, only that Saddam should know that he cannot assure our destruction, therefore we wait for his strike to assure his. We should only seek peace, but be ready for war when it comes.
29 posted on 03/15/2002 2:50:01 PM PST by In veno, veritas
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To: maquiladora
I don't think you should rule out a "whack-a-saddam" strategy.

Take control of the air, use some search forces and other means to locate him, and depend on the various new missile defense weapons to counter the wmd threat.

33 posted on 03/15/2002 3:01:02 PM PST by mrsmith
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To: maquiladora
Pretty good analisys, except that the Brits will be with us. Blaid will insist, and the only option for the Labour antis would be a vote of no confidence, which would dissolve the Labour government. They will complain but in the end Blair will get his way.
37 posted on 03/15/2002 3:10:38 PM PST by Hugin
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To: maquiladora
An alternate scenario is that the U.S. will gradually ratchet up the military pressure on Iraq, rather than launch a sudden Gulf-War-style massive assault, precisely to avoid Hussein's use of WMDs on Israel.

The U.S. will proceed to position our forces as if we plan a conventional attack (and to give us the option of engaging in such an attack at any time). But meanwhile we'll infiltrate our special forces into Northern and Southern Iraq under cover of our air power in the "no-fly zones". Our aircraft will intensify their activities, and start hitting some targets without waiting to be "locked onto" by radar. Any suspected missile launch facility will become fair game. Soon missile sites in central Iraq, outside the "no-fly zones", will be targeted.

This is our "slowly boil the frog" strategy. We just keep increasing our military action but hold off the massive air and land attacks. We launch special forces raids on suspected WMD facilities. We assist anti-Hussein Iraqi forces in the north and south. And we allow fear and defeatism to percolate throughout the Iraqi government and military. Saddam has to keep purging and fighting off coup attempts (or suspected attempts), and he becomes more and more isolated, spending most of his time hiding in underground bunkers.

As long as the U.S. holds off on full-scale war, Hussein will be unable to use his WMDs against Israel, since that would immediately trigger massive retaliation and all-out war and make him appear responsible. Meanwhile Hussein can cling to the (vain) hope that the pressure of "world opinion" might yet prevent a U.S. attack.

Eventually Saddam and his government crack apart from the pressure, and our Iraqi allies take over with virtually no loss of U.S. life.

42 posted on 03/15/2002 3:28:49 PM PST by dpwiener
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To: maquiladora
If Saddam does have active WMD and the ability to deliver them, then he can be expected to use them. There is no doubt about that.

Saddam had WMD (chemical and or biological weapons in the last Gulf War) but he didn't use them against either Israel or Saudi Arabia for fear of nuclear retaliation. On the other hand, if his back is to the wall, he has nothing to lose and he might very well decide to use everything, in which case the U.S., or more likely Israel, will retaliate with nuclear weapons, possibly seting off the whole region and bringing on WWIII. Given that these are not trivial issues, I wonder why Congess isn't debating the issue around the clock. If it's necessary to risk nuclear war to bring down Saddam, Bush should ask congress to step up to the plate and explicitly declare war on Iraq. At least we'd get to hear the best arguments, pro and con.

44 posted on 03/15/2002 3:47:59 PM PST by DentsRun
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To: maquiladora
"Today, during the President's speech at Fort Bragg, he stated clearly that Phase One of the war on terror was almost warped up."

Warp factor five, Mr. Scott!

--Boris

50 posted on 03/15/2002 7:12:45 PM PST by boris
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To: maquiladora
Well written analysis..thanks..FWIW, I suspect that Iraq maybe a far easier egg to crack than anyone suspects...The regime is rotten..held together only by terror and fear of retribution from Saddam and Uday..If you took out the top 100 people.....it'd be over in a day......I think that the US is looking at this option, if they can be sure of controlling the WMDs
52 posted on 03/16/2002 4:35:49 AM PST by ken5050
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To: maquiladora
Bring forward bump.
54 posted on 07/13/2002 7:02:29 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN
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