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To: edsheppa
That's very interesting, and I believe you got the results you got, since a few simple computations on paper lead to the same result. The simple answer is that as long as you're giving up x% of your "score" and getting x% of the other guy's "score," your score moves up until the two sides are at parity. I think for a 4 state game, equilibirum is reached when all four states are at 25%, and so on, so the long-term probability of a particular mutation existing in a population (assuming no selection) is close to the 1 over the number of possible states for that gene. Of course, for low probability mutations, the drift toward equilibrium is slow. Why don't you pop in a low initial probability into your model (say, 1 in a thousand) and see how long it takes to get to equilibrium?
777 posted on 04/15/2002 8:18:31 PM PDT by maro
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To: maro
For a diploid population the drift toward equilibrium is either to 1 or 0 for a single allele.
778 posted on 04/15/2002 9:05:01 PM PDT by Nebullis
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To: maro
Yes, that's what I realized after the fact. But I don't think there's any equilibrium int the instantaneous proportion; it will vary between 0 and 1 with an average of 1/2 although the distribution may not be uniform. Of course the total proportion will tend toward 1/2 - perhaps that's what you mean.

I'm sure you're right that the lower x is the more expected number of generations will need to pass before the mutation becomes prevalent. With a population around 1000 and rate of 1/1000 I ran it ten times. It took 347, 975, 775, 353, 262, 659, 609, 241, 79, and 204 generations before mutants exceeded 1/2 of the population. With the same population size and a rate of 1/10000 it took 1564, 3551, 4261, 3979, 1047, 7947, 3936, 8336, 747, and 1632 generations - about 10x. With 10000 and 1/10000 it looks like about another 10x. I'm guessing it is linear in both parameters.

I'd be happy to share the program with you, it's really simple.

784 posted on 04/15/2002 11:51:20 PM PDT by edsheppa
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