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To: Nebullis;general_re
You guys are far beyond me. I'm just glad you haven't nuked me for talking beyond my realm of competence.

The central question I'm trying to address is whether design of living organisms is even possible, barring cut and try. Is it possible, in principal, to predict the effect of a novel mutation? And assuming you could predict the structural effect, could you also predict the effect on fertility and viability in a constantly fluctuating environment?

It's one thing to say that goddidit, quite another to argue for a designer that is not omnipotent.

541 posted on 03/26/2002 11:50:51 AM PST by js1138
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To: js1138
Obviously, that sort of thing is waaaaaaay out of reach right now. It's partly going to depend on whether there really are a finite number of possible states for a given genome. I think that it will probably turn out that there are, but there's a very simple analogue we can look at right now to give us some idea of what we're up against.

Besides SETI, one of the other distributed computing efforts going on right now is research into protein folding for cancer research - I've been debating whether to drop SETI and donate some cycles to that recently. But the fact that it requires massively parallel distributed computing systems to figure out the potential configurations of comparatively simple proteins - that is, hundreds of thousands or even millions of machine-years - should give us some idea of the absolutely enormous computing power that would be needed to determine all the possible configurations and products of, and effects of modifications to, a given strand of DNA. And then if you understand how natural genomes work, maybe then you can start to think about designing your own genome from scratch.

If it is possible - and I'm guessing that it is, although it's just a guess - it's a long way away. Maybe if I can manage to finally quit smoking, I'll be able to hang around just long enough to see something like that happen, but something makes me doubt it. Who knows, though? Someone we've never heard of could be in a lab somewhere right now, on the verge of the massive breakthrough that gives us the key to it all ;)

542 posted on 03/26/2002 1:20:43 PM PST by general_re
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