I think this AP writer likes to get a rise out of people. If i'm not mistaken, Smith's position is no different than Stevens of Alaska.
Stevens has said he won't support a fillibuster, but wants to ensure time to debate (and possibly amend) the CFR bill. That is what McConnell wants, as well.
40 Republicans can stop the bill by stopping debate. It is more likely to get 40 to try and stop the bill than 50 to stop its passage.
One thing to keep in mind is any of these guys on the edge that have the power to stop the bill or move the bill forward are negotiating right now to the highest bidder.
It would be interesting to know if Bush is willing to provide incentives to borderline congress critters. If he isn't then either he wants the bill passed as is or he knows he will veto it and its not worth paying for help.