Even putting derivitives aside for a minute, I've noticed a sort of "rumbling" in the banking/credit system in general lately. I'm not too detail oriented when it comes to economics, but the big picture isn't looking good.
I'm far from any kind of expert, but I did spend quite a few years in real estate and mortgages and I know the financial and credit aspects of the economy can be a strange animal. It's changed so quickly in just the few years since I've gotten out of it.
I read an article last night that bankruptcy filings are up 19% in 2001. That's pretty dramatic if you ask me, considering "accounts receivable" is considered an asset in accounting terms.
It used to be that when the prime went down, borrowing rates followed within a week reflecting the drop almost verbatim. Over the last year and a half, the fed has dropped about 5 points yet interest rate drops have been nearly none-existent. As a matter of fact, credit card rates are climbing pretty quickly.
People can blame the evil bank execs, but that's juvenile as there will always be someone to sell money cheaper if there's a way to do it. I think they're just having a lot of trouble making ends meet.