Posted on 02/12/2002 9:57:37 PM PST by B-bone
WASHINGTON -- Former Vice President Al Gore's emergence last week from self-imposed exile was greeted with underwhelming public enthusiasm, as befitting the ghost of unhappy politics past.
When he dropped out of sight, it seemed a logical strategy. The country, the Democratic Party and Gore himself were exhausted after a controversial election that exposed the nation's irreconcilable ideological divisions. We were all cranky and in need of a respite.
As Gore re-enters the political debate, the country is still divided, but it is a very different place from what it was a year ago. The Republican rival who lost the popular vote but became president anyway has matured unexpectedly into an enormously popular wartime leader. The political agenda has been redefined, although Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on how to proceed.
Gore's pledge to campaign for Democratic candidates in the fall election suggests that he has not lost his lust for the White House. Whether he runs again may depend on how warmly he is received by party loyalists, some of whom are still angry that he ran a disappointing campaign in 2000.
Yet Gore remains the Democrats' best-known public figure not named Clinton or Kennedy. And name identification will be more important than ever in the 2004 presidential campaign because the primaries have been front-loaded; that is, their dates have been moved up. Under the new calendar, the nominee could well be chosen by March, which leaves little time for a relatively unknown candidate to emerge.
A recent USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll of Democratic adults indicated that 29 percent preferred Gore as the party's nominee. In second place was Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with 14 percent, followed by former Sen. Bill Bradley with 9 percent and Sens. Joe Lieberman and Tom Daschle with 8 and 7 percent, respectively. Rep. Dick Gephardt had 6 percent support, Sen. John Kerry had 5 percent.
The low numbers reflect the fact that no single potential candidate has yet emerged to challenge Gore. Clinton insists she will not run in 2004. Bradley was badly beaten by Gore in the 2000 primaries, and Lieberman has said he will not run if Gore does. Gephardt ran unsuccessfully in 1986 and is likely to remain in the House if Democrats gain control and he becomes speaker. Kerry, already busily organizing and perhaps the most ambitious of the lot, is scarcely known outside his home state of Massachusetts.
Daschle, the Senate majority leader, increasingly looks like the most promising alternative to Gore.
Ironically, the Republicans are pumping up Daschle's political stock by singling him out for attack, demonizing him by name as an obstructionist -- and, in the process, making him into the leading partisan liberal. In GOP eyes this is supposed to be a devastating insult, but it is a heroic position from which to appeal to Democrats.
Even so, Gore has advantages that Daschle and the others lack in addition to a high recognition factor. He knows the opposition. Boy, does he know the opposition. A second time around, Gore should confront Bush with more confidence, fully aware of what to expect. In politics, experience is a good teacher.
Gore is finally his own man, free to reinvent himself. The graying beard is an outward manifestation of that independence. Although traditionalists are still bothered by them, the whiskers have become an integral part of his casual, tieless, earth-tone persona. The idea is that if he doesn't look the same on the outside, he's probably not the same inside either.
Gore no longer has to worry about President Clinton's shadow, for good or ill. Clinton remains a popular Democratic fund-raiser, but he's out of power, out of scandals and out of the central political spin cycle. Some Democrats believe Gore was mistaken to ignore Clinton during the campaign, but others think he had little choice, given the president's legal and moral problems. Four years from now, however, Clinton should be stale news.
Bush's high approval ratings may discourage other Democratic hopefuls who lack Gore's access to big party givers and his familiarity with the whole range of major national policy issues. On the other hand, they may remember 1992, when a different Bush incumbent was so popular following the Persian Gulf war that the party's biggest names declined to run against him. That left an obscure governor from Arkansas to pick up the pieces, and the White House.
Gore and his wife Tipper are leaving nothing to chance. They are planning a book tour to promote two books about American families they have written. Along the way, they will discuss domestic issues in non-political settings with ordinary voters. They will launch their enterprise at a book-sellers convention in New York in May.
Gore certainly isn't behaving like a man who has given up. My hunch is that he has worked out a three-year strategy for a Bush rematch. I even predict that he will win the 2004 Democratic nomination. Capturing the White House, however, depends as much on uncontrollable events as on the two candidates. Nobody knows that better than Gore himself.
© 1998-2002 Seattle Post-Intelligencer
She shouldn't be so dismissive, though the fact that she is an idiot (there wasn't a presidential election in 1986 in THIS country) might be why she downplays Gephardt's chances.
Now, Gephardt did run in 1988 (as did "Prince Al"), but was effectively lost in the crowd. Dick will be loaded for bear come 2004, and he'll cut Al off at the knees.
How? Two words: Big Labor.
The Labor vote that held it's nose and pulled the lever for the (then) sitting Vice President will flock to Gephardt, a long-time Labor ally.
Add to this the fact that Dick has name recognition, comes from an important midwestern battleground state, has solid and well-tested fundrasing resources, and has an IQ well above that of Mr. Gore, and I think he's the one to watch in two years.
By the way, I don't buy the whole "prospective Speaker" crap. The Gore folks were able to dissuade Gephardt from running in part because of this in 2000, and I don't see it holding much water in 2004.
Gore is dilusional, and it couldn't happen to a better candidate (Well, maybe Clinton)...His entire staff has bailed on him. He's now working with 2nd and 3rd stringers left over from his HUMILIATING loss to President Bush. Even the clowns as DUhhhh have turned on him after that "Gore supports Bush's plans against the Evil Axis" article.
Gore wanting...Na...NEEDING this nomination SO BADLY is going to rip the rats to shreds!!! And I LOVE IT!!!
"unexpectedly" ???
By whom?
This is like the clowns who predict X will beat Y by 24 points on Saturday
When Y beats X, they all say that "Y outperformed expectations".
They won't say the truth: "We didn't predict it very well."
LOL!
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