Posted on 02/03/2002 5:39:42 PM PST by DallasJ7
A much-guarded internal poll presented to House Democrats last week at their annual retreat paints a grim picture of the party's outlook in 22 districts that are considered key to Democratic prospects of winning the majority in November.
Among the findings in the survey, a portion of which was obtained by Roll Call, are that Democrats face huge deficits among "persuadable" voters on a host of key issues, particularly the war on terrorism, and have seen their advantage disappear on a number of the party's bread-and-butter issues, such as improving education and protecting Social Security.
Perhaps more ominously for the Democrats are signs that Hispanics, who have long provided a key portion of the party's base vote, have more or less drifted into the persuadable category, with 45 percent of those polled saying there is at least a "fair chance" that he or she will vote for the Republican candidate for Congress.
In spite of the results, Democrats appeared to welcome the poll, which party strategists said was the first of its kind, as a candid snapshot of what the Democrats are up against this November.
Or as one Democratic strategist succinctly put it, "We now know what not to do."
The survey was sponsored for the most part by Caucus Chairman Martin Frost (Texas) and Vice Chairman Bob Menendez (N.J.). Aides familiar with the survey said more than 1,000 voters were sampled across 22 marginal districts.
"In some part it was a small revelation for others [in the Caucus]," said Rep. Baron Hill (Ind.), one of three Members in marginal districts who addressed the Caucus about the poll results at the retreat.
Hill described the poll as an opportunity to "express how difficult it is for us to get elected in marginal districts because of the national message."
The poll has become a rallying point for a sizable wing of the party, led by centrists, who argue that marginal Democrats are often hurt by their association with the party's national message insofar as it stresses traditional liberal themes such as gun control and abortion rights.
Members and strategists suggested that the most significant outcome from the poll was that it showed the need for ideological "leeway" in the way the national party deals with its marginal Members.
The survey revealed some of the inner tension that comes into play in staking out the Democratic message.
House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (Mo.) has long sought to create a "brand" for the party so that voters immediately associate it with a batch of poll- tested issues, such as HMO reform and "saving" Medicare.
But in nationalizing the message, the party constantly risks turbulence for its candidates in marginal districts that tend to be more culturally conservative and less open to traditional Democratic themes.
"A national generic message, which was generated out of [the GOP's successful 'Contract With America'] - that doesn't work," Menendez said in an interview.
He said the lesson for the party is that it needs a message that is broad enough "so that marginal candidates aren't hindered by it."
The poll's findings on the gun issue were particularly evocative. Asked to choose between the positions of generic GOP and Democratic candidates on the question of "restrictions on gun sales," 58 percent of the persuadable voters chose the Republican.
Even within the party's base, the GOP's putative position on gun-sale restrictions fared reasonably well. Nearly a third of white base voters - and a quarter of the black base voters - preferred the GOP candidate.
"More gun control is an issue I can't even touch in my district," Hill said.
While Democrats appeared to lose a good bit of their advantage on a number of their traditionally strong issues, they appeared to find new thematic openings, particularly within their base.
For instance the poll showed that among the party's white base voters, Democrats had a sizable advantage in categories such as "shares your values," "makes it easier for me to raise my children" and "makes me feel safe."
A full section of the poll focused on how marginal candidates can "inoculate" themselves against possible blowback from the national party's positions. It showed a series of issues where the Republican advantage was so strong among persuadable voters that Democrats could best stay out of trouble by essentially taking up the GOP position.
Strategists suggested one way marginal candidates are likely to be looking for inoculation in the months ahead is by aligning themselves with President Bush, whose poll ratings are strong even among Democratic base voters.
Among the Democrats' white base voters, 66 percent said they have a favorable view of Bush. Former President Bill Clinton fared only marginally better, at 76 percent.
The shift toward the GOPin the Hispanic community appears to be connected with Bush's popularity. The poll showed that 82 percent of Hispanics at least "somewhat approve" of President Bush's job performance, while the same number say they have at least a "somewhat favorable" impression of him.
More than 50 percent of Hispanics who said they liked Bush's job performance or viewed him favorably said they felt "strongly" in that view.
"[The poll] shows what a number of people have been saying for years - that you can't simply take Hispanics for granted," Frost said in an interview. "You've got to work for the Hispanic vote."
Don't worry. Dubya is NOT his father's president.
Currently getting a lot of attention are the various states considering granting drivers licenses to illegal aliens.
Another issue that is hot is granting reduced in-state tuition (previously reserved only for legal state residents)to illegal aliens going to our state colleges which are supported by taxpayers. Meanwhile out of state CITIZENS and immigrants who use legal means to enter the US are to be charged full tuition!!
Bush's people are backing Riordan for CA governor! That man is left of Gray Davis, our current governor. At least Gray Davis is not gunhow for gun control! And has dragged his tail on giving in on the licenses for illegals by coming up with more requirements for them to be granted.
Name a leftist issue? Riordan supports it! Oh yes this Catholic who donates money to Pro-life causes is really pro-abortion. He is also in favor of granting welfare to illegal aliens.
I am a life-long Republican but I am getting fed up. The Democrats run a plantation where they promise goodies to various special interest groups to get their votes.
The Republicans roll over for donors who want cheap labor and open borders. They don't see the harm to our country of letting illegal aliens come here to flood the job market, thus lowering wages and making it harder to raise a family. I remember the day that a blue collar worker could support his family and his wife would be free to stay home to raise the kids. That was when kids weren't taking guns to school to kill their peers over some hurt feelings.
The Libertarians also want open borders but claim they won't give any welfare goodies to them! They want to end the war against drugs, comparing it to prohibition against alcohol and what harm that caused. As an RN, I have seen plenty of drunks coughing up their bloody guts after alcohol had ruined their insides. So don't tell me about how much better the drug situation would be without some restrictions.
I am finding it harder and harder to vote and I have done so every election since I turned 21.
A full section of the poll focused on how marginal candidates can "inoculate" themselves against possible blowback from the national party's positions. It showed a series of issues where the Republican advantage was so strong among persuadable voters that Democrats could best stay out of trouble by essentially taking up the GOP position.
I am finding it harder and harder to vote and I have done so every election since I turned 21.
I'm not going to preach to you Nancy. But, I will tell you this: it takes guts to be an American. Look at what has been done, look at what has been sacrificed for you to make your one, single, vote. Do what you want, but don't soil the bravery of all of the good men that gave their all to defend your right to vote. Don't betray the souls of all that are lost, and don't betray those that lived. Make my life mean something, make my sacrifice worth the effort.
Please...please...get involved! Please, help us take our country back. Don't let all that we fought for, be for nothing!......VOTE,... and get involved!
LOLOLOLOLOL! This is NOT a good sign for these losers. At DU they are fretting and talking about throwing in the towel. ROFL!
If Bush can keep his 80% approval rating (which I'm starting to think is possible if the economy stabilizes-- keeping unemployment below 6% and having no more negative growth quarters), he could barnstorm around the country this Fall to ask for help in getting his agenda through Congress. No President has held approval ratings this long, so there's no precedent for what such a rating can yield in Congressional races. We'll see, I guess.
I think a guy who last won a state-wide race in SD in 2000 by 22.7 points is going to be on the ballot again in 2004, too. I also recall that Reagan added over two more points to his state-wide percentage in his re-election year in SD. I wonder how a former majority leader of the Senate-- despised by his Democrap colleagues for not being able to hold their majority for a single cycle-- will do when running on the same ballot as that guy from 2000.
SD recruit a replacement for Tommy Boy now!
Actually the White House has noticeably stepped away from that race. They only supported Riordan because they thought he would race to primary victory uncontested. If Simon or Jones gets the nod, the White House will give all the support they can. They hate Gray Davis for many reasons, not just because he's a Democrap. They just want to see him lose for personal reasons and don't care who beats him.
Taxation is equivalent to slavery (you're working for "the man" and not your family), so the payers don't like it, and the "recipients" are kept on the plantation (depending on "the man" for food, services, etc.)
It's a lose-lose situation. Good luck.
If the economy doesn't worsen (and it probably won't), Bush will tell voters that he needs GOP help in Congress to pass his agenda and get the economy going forward. I suspect we will have modest growth and the unemployment rate won't hit 6%. He'll say that the tax cuts he got through stopped the bleeding, but we need more to get things back to 3% growth.
Regarding the media and the Democraps harping on the economy-- recall that the average unemployment rate during Reagan's 8 years (1-81 through 1-89) was 6.5%. The public re-elected Reagan and elected his chosen successor. They must have thought the economy was okay. I'm sure the media and Democraps said the same things back then. Bush's average so far is 4.9%.
Don't buy the talk about FDR either. First, there's no indication that FDR was able to hold the kind of approval ratings that Bush has. Most rises are blips of a few weeks. Second, with FDR, there was great uncertainty about how well we were doing in the war. There is no uncertainty about success as of now.
They can try it, but by November we'll have two quarters of growth, unemployment will be dropping, and companies will be meeting their estimates. I don't think the economy will be a viable issue for the Dems, especially since most are unwilling to discuss the tax cut (based on Daschle's trial balloon flop).
That's key. If someone can remain popular for a long time, then it reinforces itself. Bush would really have to screw up to have his approval rating dip below 50%.
I'm not sure how much influence it will have on Congressional races because many of the Democrat seats are gerrymandered in a way that makes them bulletproof. There aren't that many marginal seats to be had.
But extrapolate this to Senate seats and there may be a real chance of regaining control of that body in November.
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