Posted on 02/01/2002 4:07:59 PM PST by d14truth
California GOP Remains Gray Davis' Best Friend
"California Gov. Gray Davis (D) apparently has survived the state's energy crunch only to find himself facing an even more threatening political problem: an expected $12.4 billion state budget shortfall over the next two years. But California's Republican Party is only now starting to recover from years of ineptness and financial inadequacy, and it finds itself facing another potentially divisive primary that could help Davis win a second term.
The race for the GOP nomination pits a trio of hopefuls - former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, California Secretary of State Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon - each of whom appear to have a fundamental weakness that must be overcome to win.
Riordan, 71, is a former two-term mayor whose personal wealth, reputation of mayoral success, statewide name ID and strong showing against Davis in early polling combine to make him the early favorite for the GOP nomination.
But he's a Republican in name only. Riordan has contributed heavily to Democratic candidates over the years, and his key campaign advisers include Democrats Clint Reilly, Pat Caddell, Susan Estrich and his own wife, Nancy Daly Riordan.
To placate Republicans angered by the exit of California GOP operative Dan Schnur and others from the campaign, the former mayor has hired pollster Fred Steeper and media consultant Don Sipple. Both men are highly respected consultants with strong Republican pedigrees, but Sipple's reappearance adds another interesting twist to the race. Sipple, whom I always regarded as one of the top GOP media consultants, lowered his profile a few years ago after a messy divorce made him politically untouchable.
Riordan's message of government experience, business success and electoral strength against Davis should appeal to GOP voters eager to oust the governor. But the Republican's positions on abortion, gun control and gay rights won't sit well with conservatives. Moreover, Riordan is often portrayed by insiders as crotchety and insiders are unsure he will take instructions from handlers.
Jones, the highest ranking Republican elected to a Golden State office, has put together a strong campaign team that includes Ed Rollins, McNally Temple & Associates, media guru Larry McCarthy, pollster Jan Van Lohuizen and fundraiser Carla Eudy.
But the Fresno rancher and legislator, who maintains close ties to the state's agriculture industry, does not have the financial strength to compete with his primary opponents. Strategists suggest he will avoid the expensive Los Angeles media market, focusing instead on direct mail, telephone advocacy and TV in smaller markets, including San Diego, Fresno and Bakersfield.
Part of Jones' problem is that he burned himself last year when he switched from supporting George W. Bush to backing Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for the GOP presidential nomination. Not only did that raise questions about his political acumen, it also strained relations with key Republicans who, if the whispers are correct, have shut off many of the state's financial faucets that Jones needs to raise enough money to be competitive.
Jones, who is often described as bland (not necessarily a liability given recent California gubernatorial races), has been endorsed by former Gov. George Deukmejian (R).
Possibly the most interesting contender in the GOP race is Simon, who has enough cash to compete with Riordan but is aiming to become the standard-bearer of the party's conservative wing in the March 5, 2002, primary.
The son of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, the 50-year-old is a wealthy investor, philanthropist and lawyer. He also served as an assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, and campaign aides say that Simon's boss at that time, Rudy Giuliani (R), is a close friend who will appear in campaign ads for the gubernatorial hopeful.
Former Reagan Energy Secretary Jon Herrington is Simon's state chairman, while veteran California consultant Sal Russo handles media and strategy and Steve Kinney of Public Opinion Strategy handles polling.
Simon boasts endorsements from conservative commentator/1992 Senate nominee Bruce Herschensohn and1998 Senate nominee Matt Fong (R). Conservative activist Paul Weyrich has called Simon "inspiring" and "principled," and praised him as "an economic conservative ... [who] has been one of the most outspoken advocates of the need for religion in the public square."
While Simon portrays himself as an outsider, that lack of campaign experience is also a weakness. He begins with little statewide name identification and is unproven on the campaign trail. His unabashedly conservative views also raise questions about whether he will end up the way most conservatives have in post-Ronald Reagan California - as losers who can't broaden their appeal.
It is not yet clear whether California Republicans are willing to put aside their issue differences with Riordan even if they believe he has the best chance of defeating Davis. Primaries usually don't work that way.
If Riordan falters (or self-destructs), Simon has the resources to take advantage. If that happens, Jones may see an opening as the two GOP millionaires beat each other over the head with millions in TV advertising. Riordan's early lead in the primary looks about as solid as a block of ice in the Southern California sun."
"Riordan's early lead in the primary looks about as solid as a block of ice in the Southern California sun."
God is on our side only when we are on His.
And, as some say - 'as California goes, so goes America.'
Still, I couldn't hold my nose and vote for Davis now. If it is Davis and Riordan, my family will vote Libertarian.
Anyways, yes, the California Republican Party has been in disarray in recent years, and I'm not sure it's shaken off the ineptitude and incompetence.
But for now it still remains in the hands of conservatives at the grassroots.
What would be helpful is if the jackasses who refer to us as "Commiefornia" and "Kalifornistan" and other cute little names would either help us out against the liberals, or shut their mouths and get out of the way.
I watched the GOP debate and was very unimpressed by Simon. He has lots of money to spend so those who can't stand Riordan think Simon is a better choice.
Jones has markedly improved his public skills (comparing the debate to speeches he gave when the campaign began). He is the ONLY ONE of the three who publically supported Prop. 187.
By the way, I cannot understand why Republicans run like scardey cats from Prop.187. The voters merely said "We are tired of our tax money being used for the education and health care of ILLEGAL ALIENS!!
They fell for the argument that the Supreme Court had ruled that they had to be educated. What the Supremes actually said in the Texas case was "the state must educate all children regardless of legal residency status unless the state can prove it is a financial burden." Seems to me the people in CA finally said "we feel it has become a financial burden."
What was actually happening was the descrimination of CA ciitizens. More money per student was being spent on illegals (because they could not be taught in English and classroom size was lower). If you are a CA resident whose child speaks English, you get fed up when you see all the extra money spent on illegal aliens who can't. That led to Prop.187.
Unfortunately our Democrat governor and Democrat AG successfully blocked taking the case to a higher court after a local federal judge decided it was unconstitional. No where was any group with big bucks challenging Davis, etc. in court. No "friend of the court" appealed the case, so it died, despite passing with 63% of the voters in favor.
I had hoped my reply #2 would have clarified. God is God, neither Republican nor Democrat. Thanks for replying.
I just wanted to comment that I saw a Guiliani (sp) commercial for Simon, today.. sure hope they run it hard and I sure hope it helps!
Now if we can only find a way to leave our lover, Davis.
Simon was the ONLY one in the debate who said that we needed tougher border control. He also came out early on against Bush's ill-fated amnesty plan that fissled practically before it was uttered. Simon is a true Catholic, pro-life and principled, using his personal money for charitable goals, and doesn't believe in raising taxes to maintain or increase the welfare state.
This animosity against Catholic Charities should not be turned against Bill Simon ... it's ridiculous. Jones is no friend of conservatives. He was the deciding vote in Pete Wilson's 1991 tax increase. You may forgive Wilson for that because of his support an advocacy on 187, but regardless of anything good Wilson did, I would never forgive that tax increase.
Besides, has Jones been upfront in the media or on his webpage with regards to 187? I think not. He's a wimp, and will cave at the on-set when faced with a Democrat Legislature.
Bill Simon is our only hope of beating Gray Davis.
First, welcome to California! We need more conservatives here!
Yes, I think that the Guiliani ads are helping Simon. I read an article on FR the other day that Simon's numbers have increased from 5% to 20% in just the past two weeks since his television has been running. In a low turnout election, Simon is within 5% of Riordan.
Riordan will be the death of the Republican Party. Since you just came here, don't forget to register to vote! You only have 2 more weeks to register ... and then cast your ballot for Bill Simon, the only conservative in the race, and the only candidate who can beat Gray Davis.
Glad we have a comedian on the Simon team! :-)
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